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Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties

Figure 3

Projected changes in air temperature, fulfillment of chilling requirement and onset of flowering.

Projected with 5 (ECH5-REMO/CLM) and 8 (ENSEMBLES) climate runs and five () and seven () phenological models for Lower Saxony (area mean), relative to the 1971–2000 mean. : single year-mean, min-to-max range of climate runs (shaded area), 10 year moving average of each run (solid lines, see Methods S1 for equation). , : BBCH 65, early ripeners, 30-year-moving-average, all impact model mean (solid white line), single model range (shaded areas). The range of each phenological model (min-to-max) obtained from climate runs is plotted with 20% transparency (darker areas illustrate coinciding results).

Figure 3