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How to Minimize the Attack Rate during Multiple Influenza Outbreaks in a Heterogeneous Population

Figure 10

Cumulative attack rate of the whole population (CAW) under long intervention with different levels of efficacy against different time trigger (the start day of intervention, left column) and population trigger (cumulative proportion of children infected, right column).

βAC = 0.01 * βAA; βCA = 0.01 * βCC (upper row); βAC = 0.1 * βAA; βCA = 0.1 * βCC (lower row). R0A = 1.25, R0C = 2; 50% adults; 50% children (similar patterns were observed in populations with different proportions of adults and children, not shown); long intervention; interrupt all routes of transmission. All other parameters and initial conditions are listed in Tables 1 and 2. The data ranged from intervention efficacy of 0.02 to 1 with intervals of 0.02. This explains why there was no colour in the contour plots from intervention efficacy 0 to 0.02. Note that beyond a threshold level of 0.8, the intervention was not triggered, as CAAA never reached 0.8 even in the absence of any intervention.

Figure 10