70% believed TNR eliminates cat colonies
http://plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0044616#article1.front1.article-meta1.abstract1.p1

The wording of survey questions is generally considered to be one of the most important aspects in the design of a study such as this. Participants in this survey were asked to agree or disagree with the following statement:

Feral cats are eventually eliminated by TNR.

Participants who agreed or slightly agreed with this statement (including 9% of bird conservation professionals), are deemed by the authors to hold "false beliefs."

To think about this question without the highly-charged polarization of this topic, it might be better to think of whether the following statement is true or false:

Cancer is eventually cured by chemotherapy.

Clearly this is a statement that is sometimes true but not always true. The most logical answer (of the choices provided to participants of the survey in question) would be "Neither agree nor diagree," but it would seem a stretch to claim that anyone who answered otherwise held "false beliefs."

This paper's authors will likely argue that this is a poor analogy because they believe that the success rate of chemotherapy is greater than the success rate of TNR. However, the success rate of TNR itself, let alone compared to lethal control, has not been studied beyond the accounting of various anecdotal reports or mathematical models (a separate discussion). Even if the researchers could prove their argument, it would not fix the vagueness of their statement, which is problematic in several ways:

- It is not clear whether the statement is referring to discreet colonies of cats, or whole populations of cats at a city, state, or even continental level.

- No specific time-frame is provided to clarify the word "eventually".

- The participants were not told whether they should consider new cats immigrating into a colony.

- No qualifiers provided, such as "always" or "sometimes".

The researchers clearly believe that this is an appropriate "true" or "false" statement and they believe that the statement is unequivocally false, despite citing a study that confirmed a colony extinction from TNR and despite a co-author having just co-authored another study which uses a mathematical model to predict that TNR would eliminate a colony in 30 years (the assumptions that this model were based on, are a separate discussion).

For the record, if I had to answer this question as written, I would answer "somewhat agree" [as did 9% of bird conservation professionals, along with 15% who neither agreed nor disagreed]. This is based on literature (some of which is cited by this paper), like the Stoskopf and Nutter paper, that not only confirms that some cat colonies have indeed been eliminated via TNR but also provide mathematical models supporting the notion that such elimination can occur with a sufficiently high trap rate. My own experience in reducing a neighborhood colony of approximately 20 cats down to 2 sterilized cats, with no immigration to date, would also play into my response.

However, given how easily these discussions can devolve into an "us" versus "them" mindset, I want to stress that I believe that organizations like Alley Cat Allies paint far too rosy a picture of the efficacy of TNR and that there is not nearly enough focus on population reduction or accountability in their communications. Wildlife professionals are right to seek greater accountability and focus on population reduction, but they should do so consistently for both lethal and non-lethal control projects.

So I do believe that many cat advocates hold false beliefs, just as I believe that many wildlife professionals hold false beliefs. Had the researches include the statement "Feral cats are eventually eliminated by trap and remove" (or rather a less vague version of that statement) it could have generated some productive dialog.

Ultimately, this comes back to the theme of variability. Eight years after Stoskopf and Nutter urged researchers to avoid a "one size fits all" approach to the problem, most studies on the topic still yield conclusions that completely ignore variability.

The statement we should be considering is:

Feral cats are eventually eliminated or significantly reduced in number by lethal or non-lethal control when ...

That is a discussion that can truly foster collaboration and lead to a practical solution.