Fig 1.
Maps of epidemic in Copenhagen, 1853.
(A) The drinking-water pipe network. (B) The week number the first case was reported in each neighborhood. (C) The attack rate in each neighborhood. (D) The case-fatality rate in each neighborhood. The blue points represent hospitals, sick- and poor-houses. Map base layers and water-pipe data were digitized using QGIS from Nivellementskort over Kjöbenhavn. 1852. Archive reference: https://www.starbas.net/avmateriale.php?av_stam_id=46545.
Fig 2.
Diagram of transmission model structure.
The boxes represent the different infection states in two neighborhoods, i and j. The solid arrows represent the different state transitions within the model, while the dotted lines represent how infectious individuals contribute to the force of infection in their own neighborhood (blue) and other neighborhoods (red).
Fig 3.
(A) At the city level. (B) In each neighborhood.
Table 1.
Overview of the epidemic in each neighborhood.
Fig 4.
Median of the log of the transmission coefficients from model 3 (fully saturated model).
The diagonals represent log(βi) and off-diagonals log(αj,i). For example, row 4 (Kjoebmager), column 1 (Christianshavn) can be read as the transmission coefficient for cases arising in Kjoebmager from cases in Christianshavn. Darker blue represents higher transmission efficiency.
Table 2.
WAIC values for each model (columns) for each of the 10 epidemic realizations (rows).
Table 3.
Linear regression on the log of the median of between-neighborhood transmission coefficients.
Fig 5.
Result of one-step-ahead model predictions.
The mean number of new infectious cases predicted one-step-ahead with 95% prediction intervals in red. The black lines represent the 10 realizations of the epidemic used as data for parameter fitting. The vertical dotted line represents day 40 for reference between graphs.
Fig 6.
The median outflowing, inflowing, internal, and total reproductive numbers R0 for each quarter.