Fig 1.
Probability of establishing a sylvatic ZIKV transmission cycle.
Figure shows heat maps of the probability of ZIKV establishment in 3 years for 50 simulations per parameter set with colors ranging from blue (no simulations establishing) to red (all simulations establishing). Contour lines show 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 0.95 probability of establishment. For each plot, the x-axis shows the total number of mosquitoes (in two populations) and the y-axis shows the total number of non-human primates (in two populations). Left to right the panels indicate increasing in force of infection, and top to bottom decreasing non-human primate birthrate (as 1/lifespan). Other parameters: mean mosquito lifespan = 7 days; mean ZIKV recovery in NHP = 4 days; mosquito vertical transmission of ZIKV = 0; rate of yearly ZIKV introduction = 0.