Figure 1.
Age specific seroprevalence of dengue in Recife, 2006.
Age-specific seroprevalence data a) for the whole sample and b) for each specific area. The lines show the fit of 1) constant (red lines) and 2) time-varying models (green lines) to the age-specific seroprevalence data (black dots). 95% confidence intervals of seroprevalence data are shown by the dotted vertical lines.
Figure 2.
Estimated average time-varying forces of infection.
a) Estimated average time-varying forces of infection (FI), with 95% confidence intervals for Recife over the period 1986–2006. b). Estimated time varying-forces of infection for the three sampled neighborhoods over the period 1986–2001.
Figure 3.
Discrete time simulation shows that as years go by, multitypic immunity accumulates among adults.
Results of discrete-time simulation to show the accumulation of multitypic and monotypic immunity 10, 20, and 30 years after the introduction of dengue virus into a previously susceptible population, and at equilibrium. (DENV 1, 2 and 3) = 0.05.
Figure 4.
Age distribution of hospitalized dengue cases in Brazil, 2007 resembles expected age distribution of monotypically immune.
Age distribution of hospitalized dengue cases in Pernambuco, 2007 [20] (top). Age distribution of monotypically immune, 20 years after the introduction of dengue virus into a previously susceptible population, as predicted by the model (bottom). λ (DENV 1, 2 and 3) = 0.05.
Figure 5.
Predicted changes in the age distribution of monotypically immune (DHF/DSS) over time.
Estimated mean age of monotypically immune (top) and proportion of monotypically immune (DHF/DSS cases) that are children under 15 years (bottom) at several time points after the introduction of DENV into a previously susceptible population.