Figure 1.
Vector and reservoir data points in North America.
(a) Both vector species are shown. (b) All four reservoir species are shown.
Table 1.
Explanatory variables used for the construction of niche models.
Figure 2.
Predicted current distributions for leishmaniasis vector species.
The figures show the geographical projection of the ecological niche model. (a) Lutzomyia anthophora; (b) Lutzomyia diabolica.
Figure 3.
Predicted current distributions for leishmaniasis reservoir species.
The figures show the geographical projection of the ecological niche model. (a) Neotoma albigula; (b) Neotoma floridana; (c) Neotoma mexicana; (d) Neotoma micropus.
Figure 4.
Predicted future distributions for Lutzomyia diabolica.
(a) B2 scenario, Hadley model, 2020; (b) B2 scenario, Hadley model, 2050; (c) B2 scenario, Hadley model, 2080; (d) A2 scenario, CSIRO model, 2020; (e) A2 scenario, CSIRO model, 2050; (f) A2 scenario, CSIRO model, 2080.
Figure 5.
Predicted future distributions for Neotoma floridana.
(a) B2 scenario, Hadley model, 2020; (b) B2 scenario, Hadley model, 2050; (c) B2 scenario, Hadley model, 2080; (d) A2 scenario, CSIRO model, 2020; (e) A2 scenario, CSIRO model, 2050; (f) A2 scenario, CSIRO model, 2080.
Table 2.
Shift in distribution area of species.
Figure 6.
Range expansion of vector and reservoir species under the universal dispersal model.
(a) B2 scenario, Hadley model, top 10% of the habitat; (b) B2 scenario, Hadley model, top 50% of the habitat; (c) B2 scenario, Hadley model, top 90% of the habitat; (d) A2 scenario, CSIRO model, top 10% of the habitat; (e) A2 scenario, CSIRO model, top 50% of the habitat; (f) A2 scenario, CSIRO model, top 90% of the habitat.
Figure 7.
Range expansion of vector and reservoir species under the contiguous dispersal model.
(a) B2 scenario, Hadley model, top 10% of the habitat; (b) B2 scenario, Hadley model, top 50% of the habitat; (c) B2 scenario, Hadley model, top 90% of the habitat; (d) A2 scenario, CSIRO model, top 10% of the habitat; (e) A2 scenario, CSIRO model, top 50% of the habitat; (f) A2 scenario, CSIRO model, top 90% of the habitat.
Figure 8.
Human population risk due to the presence of at least one vector and reservoir species.
(a) Top 10% of the habitat; (b) Top 50% of the habitat; (c) Top 90% of the habitat.