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A realistic two-strain model for MERS-CoV infection uncovers the high risk for epidemic propagation

Fig 6

Out-of-fit prediction of large outbreaks in Macca, Madina and Riyadh in July 2016 to July 2017.

Large outbreak size (red circles) are defined as those samples which exceeds previous year (July 2015 to July 2016) total season cases. Blue circles denote those samples that fall below previous year total cases. The black line denotes total cases during July 2015 to July 2016 of the data. M1: two strain model with bilinear incidence, M3: two strain model with saturated incidence.

Fig 6