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The importance of dog population contact network structures in rabies transmission

Fig 5

Outbreak probability, size and duration on a network of 4930 dogs for different vaccination coverages.

In each simulation run, a proportion of the dogs is randomly assigned the status vaccinated and one randomly chosen susceptible dog is infected from the outside. The simulation ends when there is no more transmission. Simulation runs where more than one dog gets infected are classified as incursion. Simulation runs where more than one dog and less than 1% of the population get infected are classified as minor outbreaks. Simulation runs where more than 1% of the population gets infected are classified as major outbreaks. Incursions include minor and major outbreaks. The outbreak probability is the proportion of simulation runs with outbreaks. The outbreak size is the cumulative proportion of infected dogs over the whole course of the infection. The outbreak duration is the number of weeks until the last infected dog dies. In the left panel the lines correspond to the mean over 1000 simulation runs for each value of the vaccination coverage. In the center and the right panel the lines correspond to the mean over 1000 simulation runs for each value of the vaccination coverage and the shaded areas correspond to the interquartile ranges. The axis of the indented figure in the center panel are the same as in the surrounding figure.

Fig 5

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006680.g005