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Improving early epidemiological assessment of emerging Aedes-transmitted epidemics using historical data

Fig 3

Predictive distribution of weekly incidence of Zika virus infections in Guadeloupe, Martinique and Saint-Martin using either non-informative (NI, panel A), informative regional (R, panel B) or informative local (L, panel C) priors, and calibrated using data available up to the vertical dashed line (here chosen two weeks after date “S”).

Continuous lines correspond to mean prediction of future incidence, dark and light grey areas to 50% and 95% prediction intervals, respectively, and circles to observed incidence.

Fig 3