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Dispersion of the HIV-1 Epidemic in Men Who Have Sex with Men in the Netherlands: A Combined Mathematical Model and Phylogenetic Analysis

Fig 6

Estimated case reproduction number over time for all MSM-majority transmission clusters of ≥10 cases.

The solid lines show the mean Rt estimate for each transmission cluster. The bold black line is the mean Rt of all clusters, with the 95% confidence interval shown by the dotted lines. The shaded areas show the 95% confidence intervals for each transmission cluster: darker areas indicate overlapping intervals across different transmission clusters. Transmission clusters are shown in red if their first sequence appeared before 1991, in blue if their first sequence appeared between 1991 and 2000, and in green if their first diagnosed case appeared after 2000. The black horizontal dotted line represents the threshold value Rt = 1. (A) Main analysis. (B) Sensitivity analysis for a looser cluster definition. (C) Sensitivity analysis for a more stringent cluster definition. (D) Sensitivity analysis for the clusters defined under a single linkage branch length threshold.

Fig 6

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001898.g006