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Dispersion of the HIV-1 Epidemic in Men Who Have Sex with Men in the Netherlands: A Combined Mathematical Model and Phylogenetic Analysis

Fig 2

Large transmission clusters over time: risk group of infection.

The picture illustrates the distribution of 106 large transmission clusters, where every horizontal line of dots represents one cluster, and each dot represents a single patient in the cluster by the year of diagnosis. The dots in a cluster represent in total 52% (3,061) of 5,852 ATHENA patients with a HIV-1 subtype B pol sequence in this study. The clusters are ordered by majority risk group and by the number of years between the first and last patient identified within each particular cluster. The color of each dot represents the self-reported risk group of infection. X’s indicate the estimated time of the MRCA, in orange for Curaçao. Some discrepancies may arise as the earliest cases sometimes are included with a sequence many years after their year of diagnosis. On the right-hand side the estimated mean reproduction number over the last 5 y is indicated. At the bottom of the figure, patients are represented who could not be identified as belonging to a cluster. The group above this one shows those patients who belonged to clusters in the phylogenetic tree with fewer than 10 ATHENA sequences included, which were not regarded as large clusters according to our definition. S8 Fig shows the same figure with also these smaller clusters stratified by duration. HT, heterosexual transmission.

Fig 2