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Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation: Findings from a National Cluster Sample Survey by the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study

Figure 5

Estimates of numbers of adult deaths per week in Iraq for 2-y intervals, 2001–2011, by cause as reported by siblings in the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study.

National estimate of deaths in Iraq between 2001 and 2011. Age-specific mortality rates were estimated separately within 2-y blocks (the first two time intervals are not strictly 2 y long, in order to align the first interval dividing point with the start of the war in March 2003; the survey concluded July 2, 2011, so the final bar reflects only half of the year). The counterfactual (had there been no war) estimate shows the predicted death counts if crude death rates had remained at their average level from 2001–2002 during the war and occupation (in gray). War-related, but not violent, deaths above the normal baseline are in the salmon-colored area. War-related violent deaths are portrayed in red. The estimates use the ICSS method to correct for survival bias [33].

Figure 5