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A World Malaria Map: Plasmodium falciparum Endemicity in 2007

Figure 6

Model Validation Plots

(A) Scatter plot of actual versus predicted point-values of PfPR2−10.

(B) Sample semi-variogram of standardized model Pearson residuals estimated at discrete lags (circles) and compared to a Monte Carlo envelope (dashed lines) representing the range of values expected by chance in the absence of spatial autocorrelation.

(C) Receiver-Operating-Characteristic curves for each PfPR2−10 endemicity class (black line, PfPR2−10 ≤ 5%; red line, PfPR2−10 > 5% to < 40%; green line, PfPR2−10 ≥ 40%) and associated AUC statistics.

(D) Probability-probability plot comparing predicted probability thresholds with the actual percentage of true values exceeding those thresholds. In the top left and bottom left plots the 1:1 line is also shown (dashed line) for reference. See text for full explanation of validation procedures and interpretation of results.

Figure 6