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A World Malaria Map: Plasmodium falciparum Endemicity in 2007

Figure 5

Maps of Model Uncertainty

(A) The probability of PfPR2−10 being in the class to which it was assigned is mapped and shown as a yellow to blue continuum from 0.3̇ − 1. Any value above 0.3̇ is better than a chance allocation. The rest of the land area was defined as unstable risk (medium grey areas, where PfAPI < 0.1 per 1,000 pa) or no risk (light grey) [1719].

(B) The population-weighted index of uncertainty. This index shows the likely importance of uncertainty assessed by the product of the log of population density (Protocol S2.3) and the reciprocal of the probability of correct class assignment, rescaled from 0–1. The index is shown for the most probable PfPR2−10 endemicity class. Unstable and no risk are as (A).

Figure 5