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The Reversal of Fortunes: Trends in County Mortality and Cross-County Mortality Disparities in the United States

Figure 4

Change in Probability of Dying in Specific Age Ranges between 1961 and 1983 and between 1983 and 1999, with Counties Grouped on the Basis of the Level of Change in Life Expectancy as in Figure 3

The total height of each column shows the change in the probability of dying (from all causes) in the age range shown, divided into the probability of dying from specific diseases and injuries. The change is calculated as the probability of death in the end year minus that of the initial year. Therefore, a positive number indicates an increase in mortality, and a negative number indicates a decline in mortality (disease-specific or all-cause for the net effects of all diseases). Group 6 for females in 1983–1999 is shown on a different scale to increase resolution for all other groups.

Notes: Results are not shown for 5–14 y because there are few deaths in these ages in the United States. Groups with less than 0.2% of the country's population (groups 4 and 6 for both sexes in 1961–1983, and group 4 for males in 1983–1999) have not been shown because the results are based on too few deaths. COPD and lung cancer are presented together and changed in the same direction for all age and county group. The other noncommunicable disease group includes diabetes, for which the direction of change in probability of death is identical to other noncommunicable diseases exclusive of diabetes.

Figure 4