About the Authors

Marc Baguelin

marc.baguelin@phe.gov.uk

Affiliations Immunisation, Hepatitis and Blood Safety Department, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Stefan Flasche

Affiliations Immunisation, Hepatitis and Blood Safety Department, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom

Anton Camacho

Affiliations Immunisation, Hepatitis and Blood Safety Department, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Nikolaos Demiris

Affiliation Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece

Elizabeth Miller

Affiliation Immunisation, Hepatitis and Blood Safety Department, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom

W. John Edmunds

Affiliations Immunisation, Hepatitis and Blood Safety Department, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Competing Interests

ND is a member of the Editorial Board of PLOS Medicine where he acts as a statistical adviser.

Author Contributions

Conceived and designed the experiments: MB ND WJE. Performed the experiments: MB SF. Analyzed the data: MB SF AC WJE. Wrote the first draft of the manuscript: MB ND WJE. Contributed to the writing of the manuscript: MB AC ND EM WJE. ICMJE criteria for authorship read and met: MB SF AC ND EM WJE. Agree with manuscript results and conclusions: MB SF AC ND EM WJE.