About the Authors

Myron S. Cohen

All authors contributed equally to this work.

Affiliations Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America, Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America, Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America

Christopher Dye

All authors contributed equally to this work.

Affiliation World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Christophe Fraser

c.fraser@imperial.ac.uk (CF); powersk@email.unc.edu (KAP); BrianGerardWilliams@gmail.com (BGW)

All authors contributed equally to this work.

Affiliation Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

William C. Miller

All authors contributed equally to this work.

Affiliations Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America, Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America

Kimberly A. Powers

c.fraser@imperial.ac.uk (CF); powersk@email.unc.edu (KAP); BrianGerardWilliams@gmail.com (BGW)

All authors contributed equally to this work.

Affiliations Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America, Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America

Brian G. Williams

c.fraser@imperial.ac.uk (CF); powersk@email.unc.edu (KAP); BrianGerardWilliams@gmail.com (BGW)

All authors contributed equally to this work.

Affiliation South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch, South Africa

Competing Interests

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Author Contributions

Analyzed the data: MC CD CF WCM KAP BGW. Wrote the first draft of the manuscript: MC CD CF WCM KAP BGW. Contributed to the writing of the manuscript: MC CD CF WCM KAP BGW. ICMJE criteria for authorship read and met: MC CD CF WCM KAP BGW. Agree with manuscript results and conclusions: MC CD CF WCM KAP BGW. Combined individual written contributions: BGW.