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Correction: Accounting for non-stationarity in epidemiology by embedding time-varying parameters in stochastic models

  • The PLOS Computational Biology Staff

Correction: Accounting for non-stationarity in epidemiology by embedding time-varying parameters in stochastic models

  • The PLOS Computational Biology Staff
PLOS
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There are at least three errors in the manuscript, they are as follows:

- In the “Models with time-varying parameters” paragraph after equation (4), for the sentences

εi(t) describe the clustering of the population [39,40] but can also describe a reduction in the population due to voluntary avoidance behavior or social distancing. However due to the absence of structural identifiability properties [41, 42] it should be very difficult to estimate simultaneously both β(t) and εi(t).”

εi(t)” must be replaced by “εi(t)” in accordance with the rest of the manuscript. Then these sentences become:

εi(t) describe the clustering of the population [39,40] but can also describe a reduction in the population due to voluntary avoidance behavior or social distancing. However due to the absence of structural identifiability properties [41, 42] it should be very difficult to estimate simultaneously both β(t) and εi(t).”

- In the Fig 3 caption the equation of β(t) must be read as:

β(t) = β0.(1 + β1 sin(2πt/365+2πϕ) + β2 sin(2πt/(3 365)+2πϕ) + β3 sin(2πt/(0.5 365)+2πϕ))

and not:

β(t) = β0.(1 + β1 sin(2πt/365+2πϕ) + β2 sin(2πt/(3 365)+2πϕ)) + β3 sin(2πt/(0.5 365)+2πϕ))

- In the “SIRS model” paragraph after equation (5), the sentence

“Initially non-informative priors were used for the volatility σ, the reporting rate ρ and the initial conditions γ(0) by β(0) but to reduce problems linked to practical non-identifiability materialized by correlation between some estimates, informative priors were used for ρ (see S1 Fig).”

must be replaced (as in the uncorrected proofs) by:

“Initially non-informative priors were used for the volatility σ, the reporting rate ρ and the initial conditions (S(0), I(0), β(0)) to reduce problems linked to practical non-identifiability materialized by correlation between some estimates, informative priors were used for ρ (see S1 Fig).”

Reference

  1. 1. Cazelles B, Champagne C, Dureau J (2018) Accounting for non-stationarity in epidemiology by embedding time-varying parameters in stochastic models. PLoS Comput Biol 14(8): e1006211. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006211 pmid:30110322