Fig 1.
Probability density functions of the Gamma distributions considered for the individual transmission probability (panel a) and the individual contact factor (panel b).
Table 1.
Overview of scenarios.
Fig 2.
Extinction probabilities for scenarios investigating infectiousness-related heterogeneity (in green, panel a) and contact-related heterogeneity (in blue, panel b), defined as the proportion of simulation runs (n = 200) that produces less than 20 cases.
Error bars represent 95% (Clopper-Pearson) confidence intervals.
Fig 3.
Violin plots for the attack rate over 200 days for scenarios investigating the infectiousness-related heterogeneity (in green, panel a) and contact-related heterogeneity (in blue, panel b).
The orange dots represent the mean attack rate across the simulation runs without extinction, i.e., simulation runs in which extinction occurs (< 20 cases) were excluded.
Fig 4.
Violin plots for the size and day of peak across the different simulation runs for scenarios investigating the infectiousness-related heterogeneity (in green, panels a and c, respectively) and contact-related heterogeneity (in blue, panels b and d, respectively).
The orange dots represent the mean of the simulated peak sizes and days at which the peak is reached. Simulation runs in which extinction occurs (< 20 cases) were excluded.
Fig 5.
Violin plots of the estimated herd immunity threshold values over the different simulation runs including or excluding runs with extinction for scenarios investigating the infectiousness-related heterogeneity (in green, panels a and c, respectively) and contact-related heterogeneity (in blue, panels b and d, respectively).
The orange dots represent the mean of the simulated values.
Fig 6.
Violin plots for the number of cases before lockdown (day 0–day 30), during lockdown (day 30–day 90) and during partial release phase (day 90–day 600) for the different scenarios investigating infectiousness-related heterogeneity (in green, panels a, c, and e, respectively) and contact-related heterogeneity (in blue, panels b, d, and f, respectively).
The orange dots represent the mean of the simulated values.
Fig 7.
The proportion of simulation runs, in which the number of cases during lockdown is greater than 0, that produces more than 500 cases during the partial release phase for scenarios investigating infectiousness-related heterogeneity (in green, panel a) and contact-related heterogeneity (in blue, panel b).
Error bars represent 95% (Clopper-Pearson) confidence intervals.
Fig 8.
Violin plots for the herd immunity threshold as estimated for the social distancing scenario, when investigating infectiousness-related heterogeneity (in green, panel a) and contact-related heterogeneity (in blue, panel b).
The orange dots represent the mean of the simulated values.