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Covasim: An agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions

Fig 11

Example calibration of Covasim to data from Seattle/King County, Washington, USA from January 27 to November 14 2020 (dashed line), with projections until December 31, including additional restrictions imposed on November 16.

(A) Number of daily COVID-19 tests, which are used as input data. (B) Calibration to the number of daily COVID-19 diagnoses. (C) Calibration to the number of daily contacts traced (weekly averages shown; data past prediction date are not available). (D) Calibration to the number of daily COVID-19 deaths. (E) Projections of the number of new infections if restrictions had not been implemented, with the restrictions as implemented, and if restrictions were implemented together with increases in testing and contact tracing. Bands show 80% forecast intervals; data are rolling 7-day averages to account for weekend reporting delays.

Fig 11