An antigenic diversification threshold for falciparum malaria transmission at high endemicity
Fig 4
Patterns of new gene establishment in simulations below and above the Rdiv threshold of 1.
(A) New genes do not accumulate below the transmission threshold where they essentially follow neutral dynamics. In contrast, they do accumulate at a constant rate under frequency-dependent selection above this threshold (B). Each color in the stacked area plots refers to a new gene in the population. New genes that account for less than five infections over the entire period are combined and represented in grey. (C) The distribution of lifespan of new genes generated in the simulation (measured in log(years)) is shorter below the threshold than above it (D). In addition, new genes with a greater number of new epitopes live longer above the threshold, whereas below the threshold, they experience similar lifespans (C, D).