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Estimation of temporal covariances in pathogen dynamics using Bayesian multivariate autoregressive models

Fig 1

Model used to estimate pairwise relative risk covariances.

The diagram should be read from the bottom (starting with Ymtv) to the top. All prior choices have been fully specified. Numbers indicate hyperparameter choices, for instance, mean and variance in the normal distribution, lower and upper bound in the uniform distributions and shape and rate in the gamma distribution. Numbers in red indicate all relevant subscripts month m = 1, …, 12, year t = 1, …, 9 and virus v = 1, …, 5. Green arrows correspond to the neighbourhood structure and maroon arrows correspond to the autoregressive structure.

Fig 1