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Anticipating epidemic transitions with imperfect data

Fig 4

Performance of EWS calculated from weekly and monthly snapshots of the infectious population.

AUC values further from 0.5 imply better performance. To investigate performance when the aggregation period is less than, equal to, and greater than the infectious period, results are shown for 1/γ = 1 week and 1 month. Simulations were performed using a stochastic non-fatal SIR model with birth and death. In a fully susceptible population, on average 1 susceptible individual per week acquires the infection from external sources. Individuals have a mean lifespan of 70 years. The average population size N = 106 individuals. In simulations of the emerging scenario, R0 increases linearly from 0 to 1 over 20 years, in simulations of the stationary scenario R0 = 0. AUC values calculated using 1000 replicates of both models, see Methods.

Fig 4