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Epidemic Spread on Weighted Networks

Figure 3

Disease spread on a network inferred from data.

A) Characteristics of the heterosexual contact network inferred from the NATSAL contact tracing study [28]. The network shows a heterogeneous joint probability distribution , which is the probability for an individual to have k contacts during the last 5 years and l sex acts during the last 4 weeks (higher values of are in red and lower values are in green). This heterogeneity is also seen for the marginal distributions (on the right) and (on the top). B) Dynamics of an SI epidemic spreading on an unweighted (black line) or a weighted sexual contact network. The results of simulations on the weighted network are in grey, the approximations of our model are in red or in orange for the case with assortativity correction. The network has been reduced to nodes with k>0 and transmission probability per sex act is β = 0.01. C) Dynamics of the average number of contacts of susceptible (in green) and infected individuals (in red) over the course of an epidemic spreading on the weighted network. The inset shows the probability of a host to be susceptible or infected at t = 10 years conditioned to the number of contacts during the last 5 years (more or less than 3 contacts). D) Same as panel C but for the number of sex acts . In Panels B, C and D, the weighting is done using the shown in panel A. Individuals with more contacts tend to be disproportionally infected (panel C). Individuals with more sex acts tend to be even more infected (panel D).

Figure 3