Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics
The dotted, light colored curves correspond to the result of 100 agent-based simulations; the solid lines are the results of the numerical solution of the set of partial differential equations (1–6), parameters are chosen analogous to , average number of contacts = 3, transmission rate of = 0.2, recovery rate of = 0.1. Epidemics in networks with differences in the heterogeneity and transience of contacts are shown. The first column shows a static Poisson network with a degree distribution of , as opposed to a network with a scale free degree distribution, , in column 2 (same average degree). Column 3 corresponds to the network in column 1 with an additional demographic process (birth and death at a rate of ). Column 4 corresponds to column 1 with the additional feature that contact partners change at a rate = 0.2. Epidemics are initiated with 10 infected individuals in an otherwise susceptible population (i.e. = 10, = 9990). Links between susceptible and infected hosts, as well as their contact behavior, are initially uncorrelated, i.e., .