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Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics

Figure 1

Evolution of the numbers of susceptible (green) and infected (red) individuals (top panel) as well as their average number of contacts per person (bottom panel).

The dotted, light colored curves correspond to the result of 100 agent-based simulations; the solid lines are the results of the numerical solution of the set of partial differential equations (1–6), parameters are chosen analogous to [19], average number of contacts = 3, transmission rate of = 0.2, recovery rate of = 0.1. Epidemics in networks with differences in the heterogeneity and transience of contacts are shown. The first column shows a static Poisson network with a degree distribution of , as opposed to a network with a scale free degree distribution, , in column 2 (same average degree). Column 3 corresponds to the network in column 1 with an additional demographic process (birth and death at a rate of ). Column 4 corresponds to column 1 with the additional feature that contact partners change at a rate = 0.2. Epidemics are initiated with 10 infected individuals in an otherwise susceptible population (i.e. = 10, = 9990). Links between susceptible and infected hosts, as well as their contact behavior, are initially uncorrelated, i.e., .

Figure 1