Why aphid virus retention needs more attention: Modelling aphid behaviour and virus manipulation in non-persistent plant virus transmission
Fig 7
Relaxing the assumption of aphids always losing infectivity from probing (ρ = 1) increases epidemic size in the MIP-BAR model.
(a) Epidemic trajectories (proportion of infected plants over time) for different values of ρ, under otherwise default parameterisation. Purple line = default parameterisation (ρ = 1. equivalent to the BAR model). (b) Relationship between ρ and disease incidence at equilibrium. (c) Effect of ρ on the probability of virus retention by the aphid after probing, for both infected and susceptible plants, for different values of a (probability of aphid virus acquisition from an infected plant). When probing infected plants, the retention probability = (1 − ρ) + ρa, where a is the probability of virus (re-)acquisition from the plant from probing. For susceptible plants, the retention probability is always just 1 − ρ.