Evaluating targeted COVID-19 vaccination strategies with agent-based modeling
Fig 5
Cumulative incidence of infection and death per 10k people, by supply level and distribution strategy.
Columns represent vaccine supply scenarios. Rows represent infection (top) and death (bottom) outcomes. Median values and 90% interquantile range are shown as bold lines and shaded ribbon, respectively. For infections, the major effects are supply level (columns) and the policy of quarantining (dashed lines) or not quarantining (solid lines), whereas the four vaccination strategies perform similarly. For deaths, supply level and quarantine are again the strongest factors. However, a strong effect of vaccination strategy also emerges: relative to a standard vaccine roll-out (black), risk-based vaccination (blue) and age-based vaccination (green) are more effective at preventing deaths, whereas ring vaccination (orange) is less effective. See the text for further explanation.