Parameter uncertainty quantification using surrogate models applied to a spatial model of yeast mating polarization
Fig 3
Parameter estimation of kGa and kGd in ODE model (1)–(4).
Probability distributions are obtained via Markov chain Monte Carlo and a 10th degree polynomial. (A) Distributions for individual parameters, normalized so that the total area is equal to 1. Red lines indicate the optimal (maximum likelihood) parameter values Popt. (B) Colormap of the two-dimensional joint probability distribution of kGa and kGd from the MCMC chain. Red indicates high probability along the diagonal; blue indicates low prsobability. (C, D) Model (blue) and polynomial (red) outputs corresponding to parameter sets P* and Popt, respectively, compared with the data (black) from [37] for the time-course (top) and dose-response (bottom) experiments.