Unbiased Rare Event Sampling in Spatial Stochastic Systems Biology Models Using a Weighted Ensemble of Trajectories
Fig 8
Sampling rare states of the toy binding model.
Shown is the probability distribution of the number of bound receptors on the target side of the cell after 10 milliseconds of simulation. The weighted ensemble data (blue circles) is plotted with brute-force data (red squares) generated using equal computational effort, i.e. 611 brute-force runs. Brute-force sampling is confined to the peak of the distribution, whereas weighted ensemble sampling captures more of the full probability distribution. To compare both approaches to an authoritative value, an exhaustive set of 64 large weighted ensemble simulations was performed (grey circles), from which a bootstrapped 95% confidence interval for the mean probability distribution was calculated (dark grey bars).