Tissue tropism and transmission ecology predict virulence of human RNA viruses
Plotted models in predicting virulence in test set(s) for the single classification tree (bold black line) and averaged random forest models (bold red line) over 200 training/test set partitions. y Axis denotes sensitivity (or true positive rate; proportion of viruses rated ‘severe’ by literature protocol that were correctly predicted as ‘severe’ by the model), and x axis denotes 1 –specificity (or false positive rate; proportion of viruses rated ‘nonsevere’ by literature protocol that were incorrectly predicted as ‘severe’ by the model). Dashed black line indicates null expectation (i.e., a model with no discriminatory power). Model profiles further toward the top left indicate a better predictive performance.