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How to Make Epidemiological Training Infectious

Figure 1

Muizenberg Mathematical Fever epidemic time series.

Epidemic time series for the outbreaks at the 2010 (A) and 2011 (B) outbreaks. The former and latter outbreaks differ by their different basic reproductive numbers (defined as the average number of people an infectious individual infects if the rest of the population is susceptible; R0 = 1.23 and 1.82, respectively), the initial number of infectious individuals in the population (2 and 4, respectively), and the number of individuals immune at the start of the outbreak (0 and 14, respectively). (C and D) demonstrate how the effective reproductive number (Reff; average number of individuals each infected person infects) changes during the course of the outbreak as the number of susceptibles decreases and that the epidemic begins to burn out when Reff decreases below 1 and infectious individuals no longer replace themselves with new infections. The script for production of and further detail on this figure are given in Text S3.

Figure 1

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001295.g001