Fig 1.
Map of the average spring bottom temperature during the historical period (1996–2019) interpolated over the Grand Banks.
Isobaths indicated in light grey; Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization NAFO divisions boundaries are indicated with grey rectangles. Black arrows show the main currents of the region. Base map layer from Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com/about/).
Fig 2.
Maps and time series of average annual bottom temperature projection on the Grand Banks.
a, Time series of average annual bottom temperature for the model domain. The historical period is represented by a black line, while the IPSL-CM6A-LR, GFDL-ESM4, and ACM models are indicated by yellow, purple and green lines, respectively. Dashed lines represent the low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6), and solid lines depict the high emissions scenario (SSP4-6.0 for ACM, and SSP3-7.0 for GFDL and IPSL). b, Maps of mean annual bottom temperature projections by climate model (GFDL, IPSL and ACM) and RCP scenarios at the end of the century (period 2071–2100). Base map layer from Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com/about/).
Fig 3.
Projections of snow crab biomass by climate model and emissions scenario.
a, Projections under low emissions (SSP1-2.6, left) and high emissions scenarios (SSP4-6.0 for ACM and SSP3-7.0 for IPSL-CM6A-LR and GFDL-ESM4 scenario, right). b, Projections by climate models for low and high emissions scenarios. Biomass changes are relative to the predicted values of the reference period (1996–2019), indicated by shaded grey area. Solid colored lines depict average projected biomass, while shaded areas indicate standard deviation. Zero change is represented by a horizontal dashed line.
Fig 4.
Projections of yellowtail flounder biomass by climate model and emissions scenario.
a, Projections under low emissions (SSP1-2.6, left) and high emissions scenarios (SSP4-6.0 for ACM and SSP3-7.0 for IPSL-CM6A-LR and GFDL-ESM4 scenario, right). b, Projections by climate models for low and high emissions scenarios. Biomass changes are relative to the predicted values of the reference period (1996–2019), indicated by shaded grey area. Solid colored lines depict average projected biomass, while shaded areas indicate standard deviation. Zero change is represented by a horizontal dashed line.
Fig 5.
Projections of Atlantic cod biomass by climate model and emissions scenarios.
a, Projections under low emissions (SSP1-2.6, left) and high emissions scenarios (SSP4-6.0 for ACM and SSP3-7.0 for IPSL-CM6A-LR and GFDL-ESM4 scenario, right). b, Projections by climate models for low and high emissions scenarios. Biomass changes are relative to the predicted values of the reference period (1996–2019), indicated by shaded grey area. Solid colored lines depict average projected biomass, while shaded areas indicate standard deviation. Zero change is represented by a horizontal dashed line.
Fig 6.
Spatial patterns of species biomass changes (in kg/25 km2) for a, snow crab; b, yellowtail flounder and c, Atlantic cod on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland by climate model (GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR and ACM) under the high emissions scenarios (SSP4-6.0 for ACM and SSP3-7.0 for IPSL and GFDL) during the 2077–2100 period relative to the historical period (1996–2019). The Avalon Peninsula is the southern piece of land (in grey). Base map layer from Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com/about/).
Fig 7.
Spatial uncertainty of SDM biomass estimates (historical period; 1996–2019) and climate model projections (GFDL, IPSL and ACM) at the end of the century (2077–2100) measured as the standard deviation from 100 simulation draws for (a) snow crab, (b) yellowtail flounder and (c) Atlantic cod projected biomass. Base map layer from Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com/about/).
Fig 8.
Relative uncertainty in biomass projections for a, snow crab; b, yellowtail flounder and c, Atlantic cod, partitioned across climate models (i.e., IPSL, GFDL and ACM), emissions scenarios (low-SSP1-2.6 and high-SSP4-6.0 & SSP3-7.0) and SDM parametrization.