The Contribution of Social Behaviour to the Transmission of Influenza A in a Human Population
(A) Detailed analysis of AIC for models with age structure only and α = 0 (i.e. top rows in Figure 3A–B), with transmission based on: red, total contacts; blue, close contacts. (B) AIC for age-structured models with variable α. (C) Performance of best-supported model in Figure 4B, which has 20 age groups and transmission based on close contacts, against data. Light grey bars show observed proportion of individuals that are seropositive, with 95% binomial confidence interval given by error bars. Blue solid line shows model prediction. (D) Comparison of residuals for model in Figure 4C (blue line) and equivalent model with 35 age groups (green line).