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Unifying Viral Genetics and Human Transportation Data to Predict the Global Transmission Dynamics of Human Influenza H3N2

Figure 4

Correlation among observed H1N1 peaks and simulated peaks based on different migration rate models.

The simulations were performed using (A) an equal rate matrix, (B) a matrix of airline passengers flows, (C) standard phylogeographic estimates and (D) GLM phylogeographic estimates only considering air travel as a predictor. Spearman rank correlations () and mean absolute error (MAE; in days) considering all locations except for Mexico are provided for each comparison. The data points are colored according to the air communities represented in Fig. 1. The dotted lines represent a 1-to-1 correspondence between observed peaks and simulated H1N1 peaks.

Figure 4