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Unifying Viral Genetics and Human Transportation Data to Predict the Global Transmission Dynamics of Human Influenza H3N2

Figure 3

Phylogeographic reconstruction and spatial history of the trunk lineage.

Maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree colored according to the time spent in the air communities as inferred by the GLM diffusion model. The tree represents one of the three different sub-sampled data sets discretized according to the 14 air communities. Branches are colored according the Markov reward estimates for each location. The uncertainty of these estimates is represented by superimposing an additional gray color proportional to the Shannon entropy of the Markov reward values. The trunk lineage in the tree is represented by the thick upper branch path from the root to the nodes that represent the ancestors of samples that are exclusively from December 2006. The total time spent in each location (in years) along the trunk between 2002 and 2006 is plotted on the left of the tree. The trunk reward proportion for each location through time between 2002 and 2006 is summarized at the top of the tree. Both the total trunk time and the trunk reward proportions through time are averaged over the three sub-sampled data sets. In the trunk proportion through time plot, the number of Southeast Asian and Chinese samples are represented by a white full and dashed line respectively (secondary Y-axis).

Figure 3