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Unifying Viral Genetics and Human Transportation Data to Predict the Global Transmission Dynamics of Human Influenza H3N2

Figure 2

Predictors of global H3N2 diffusion among the 14 air communities and the 15 & 26 geographic locations.

The inclusion probabilities are defined by the indicator expectations because they reflect the frequency at which the predictor is included in the model and therefore represent the support for the predictor. Indicator expectations corresponding to Bayes factor support values of 10 and 100 are represented by a thin and thick vertical line respectively in these bar plots. The contribution of each predictor, when included in the model (), where is the coefficient or effect size, is represented by the mean and credible intervals of the GLM coefficients on a log scale. NA1: no conditional effect size available because the predictor was never included in the model. We tested different population size and density measures, different incidence-based measures and different seasonal measures (Text S1), but only list the estimates for a representative predictor for the sake of clarity. The estimates for the full set of predictors are summarized for each sub-sampled data set in Fig. S5. NA2: no indicator expectation or conditional effect size available because the predictor was not available for this discretization of the sequence data.

Figure 2