Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.
Citation: Margalida A, Oro D, Cortés-Avizanda A, Heredia R, Donázar JA (2011) Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture. PLoS ONE 6(10): e26784. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0026784
Editor: Raphaël Arlettaz, University of Bern, Switzerland
Received: June 7, 2011; Accepted: October 4, 2011; Published: October 21, 2011
Copyright: © 2011 Margalida et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Funding: AM was supported by the Departament of Medi Ambient i Habitatge of Generalitat de Catalunya and Ministerio de Medio Ambiente. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
The estimation of the non-breeding fraction of wild vertebrate populations is of great interest to ecologists and conservationists because these individuals represent a buffer that can allow populations to survive stochastic environmental and demographic phenomena –. In addition, changes in the non-breeding population's size and age structure may serve as accurate early-warning signals previous to the decline of the breeding population , .
Thus, for conservation purposes, it is essential to take into account the existing relationship between settlement-breeding areas as a consequence of the influence of the dynamics within entire populations –. Estimates of the non-breeding fraction are difficult to ascertain because they are often “cryptic” in nature and are generally not detectable other than via long-term monitoring programmes or complex approximations based on molecular techniques . This question is accentuated in the case of long-lived vertebrates characterized by delayed reproduction, which ensures that individuals are not recruited into the breeding population until they are a few years old. In the meantime, these individuals often lead dispersive life-styles not necessarily linked to their main breeding areas (i.e. the spatial segregation of non-breeding birds) , . Although in raptors it is assumed that the non-breeding fraction of populations is mainly composed of juvenile individuals , , information regarding their age structure remains scarcely explored in the literature , .
The application of the results of direct observations and individual counts (hereafter, visual surveys) in determining population age structures and demographic trends is frequently used as a basis for conservation proposals to aid in the recovery of threatened vertebrates –. Particularly, the aggregation of individuals at migratory stopovers, roosting sites and at sites with an abundance of trophic resources (e.g., the so-called vulture restaurants)  has been used to determine the age structure of populations of birds with large but scattered populations that are difficult to monitor , . Nevertheless, the probability of detecting individuals by means of visual surveys may be asymmetrical due to both the individual's behaviour and/or environmental variability . To assess these potential biases it is necessary to compare results obtained from visual surveys with precise estimates derived from matrix population models. To date, very few such analyses have been performed, probably due to the inherent difficulty in obtaining long-term monitoring data for long-lived vertebrate populations –.
The bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) is a long-lived territorial vulture species that is under threat in Europe (170 pairs in the European Union in 2010). Owing to its specialized diet based on the bones of wild and domestic ungulates , the conservation methods employed to ensure the recovery of the Pyrenean sub-population (145 pairs), the largest in Europe, are based on supplementary feeding (i.e. provision of sheep limbs and other bone matter in winter). As a result, almost all of the non-breeding population is concentrated around this network of feeding stations , . These large aggregations of dozens of non-breeding birds make visual surveys feasible and the information thus obtained is one of the basic tools used by regional and state governments to draw up conservation strategies . Apart from this, since the end of the 1980 s, the Pyrenean bearded vulture population has also been monitored using individual tagging, which has enabled demographic models based on capture-recapture and stochastic population modelling .
Taking advantage of this scenario, our main objective is to compare the population trend and age structure estimated on the basis of visual surveys with data derived from approximations reached via matrix population models. As a corollary, we examined the existence of age-related asymmetries in the use of supplementary feeding stations by bearded vultures.
Materials and Methods
During 1990–2006, between 9 and 13 (mean±sd: 11.5±1.5) supplementary feeding stations were surveyed annually. The annual visual surveys (mean±sd: 3.53±1.28) were carried out simultaneously at the end of winter (February-April), coinciding with the beginning of the breeding period (incubation and first weeks of chick-rearing)  and with the maximum numbers of birds at feeding stations owing to food shortages in the field , . A minimum of two experienced observers equipped with 20−60×telescopes and binoculars monitored each supplementary feeding station between 09:00–16:00 h from dominant vantage points. Birds were identified individually on the basis of plumage characteristics and patterns recorded on standardized data sheets.
i): <2 years (immature): robust silhouette in flight, head and shoulders black, but back, chest, belly and legs brown.
ii): 3–5 years (subadult): more stylized flight silhouette than immature birds, with moulted primary and/or secondary flight feathers; feathers on face, head and neck beginning to turn white; the back is still brown and the chest, belly and legs are also still brownish, although the orange tones are beginning to appear.
iii): >6 years (adult): stylized, svelte silhouette in flight; head, chest and belly colour vary from white to orange; the back is now slate grey or black with an obvious contrast with the head.
In addition, the existence of wing-tags or rings was also recorded . On the basis of all of this information and for each day of census the maximum number of birds belonging to the three age categories was estimated.
We built an age-structured model that was initially used for projecting the evolution of the bearded vulture population in the Pyrenees  on the basis of tagged individuals. Demographic and environmental stochasticities were introduced into the model, as well as density-dependence on fertility . We assumed that recruitment started at the age of six and was completed at 12 (i.e. a total of 12 age-classes were considered [see also 35]); survival probabilities decreased with time in line with capture-recapture estimates . The 12 age-classes considered by the model were easily accommodated to the three age classes obtained from the counts. The model considered a post-breeding census and was a one-sex (female) model, because we had no evidences for sex-dependent parameters . Initial conditions in year t = 1 (1990 in our case) were set to include the number of females in each age class. This number was estimated as follows: a deterministic model using average demographic estimates was run and to start such run the total number of females (breeders and non-breeders) was divided by the number of age-classes and such number was assigned equally to each age class. The resulting scaled right eigenvector of the matrix (i.e. the stable stage distribution, see below) was used to multiply the estimated number of females for each age-class in the population in t = 1 to set the initial conditions of the stochastic simulations. Given that the model had an age structure we were able to calculate the mean scaled population structure, i.e. the abundances of each age class relative to the abundance of the first age-class , once the model converged and the population tended asymptotically to that age-structure and growth rate . The right eigenvector of the population matrix W is the stable stage distribution; the proportion of individuals in ages [1, 2, ….i] at time t is:
with ni(t) being the abundance of the oldest age class at time t and n the total population size. After a few generations (i.e. at demographic equilibrium) W(t) →W, i.e. the stable age distribution. Monte Carlo simulations were run for 23 years to cover the study period (1986–2008), and yearly estimation of population sizes obtained were compared it with the counts from visual surveysNote that such estimates of population size for each age-class were multiplied by two because the model yielded only the number of females, and counts included females and males.
We used Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) ,  to explore the relationship between the maximum observed abundance of bearded vultures and that predicted by the model (link function: logarithmic, error distribution: Poisson). Age was included as a factor with three levels corresponding to the above-described categories. ‘Year’ was fixed in the models as the random term to account for inter-annual variability , .
The maximum number of bearded vultures observed during the simultaneous visual surveys was significantly related to both the abundance predicted by the model (F1, 31 = 13.48, p = 0.0009) and the age of the individuals (F2,31 = 19.75, p<0.0001: adult< subadult<immature). These results initially seem to indicate that visual surveys reflected the real population trend (a progressive increase, Fig. 1). However, this relationship was only approximate: inter-annual variability was strong and visual surveys were not good at detecting finely tuned trends such as the slowing down of the population growth observed during the final years of the study (2004–2006, Fig. 1). In addition, visual surveys also overestimated the number of immature birds, but underestimated the numbers of subadults and adults with respect to the predictions of the population model using stable-age distribution (Fig. 1), being the mismatch for the adult age class extremely large.
Visual surveys at supplementary feeding stations did not reflect the structure of the bearded vulture population. Compared to the approximation derived from matrix modelling, the visual surveys significantly overvalued the size of the juvenile age class, underestimating the numbers of subadults and adults. Stable-age distribution from population modelling can be considered robust because many of the parameters of the model were reliable and age-structure is insensitive to additional mortality in all age-classes . Consequently, visual surveys would seem to be inappropriate for assessing age-class structures in this bearded vulture population. The only other data available for the species were obtained by  in South Africa, where visual surveys estimated a population age-structure composed of 37% juveniles, 3% subadults and 60% adults. However, in this case the estimates were not made at feeding stations; no other data are available in the literature.
A possible explanation of the inflation observed in the juvenile age class could be related to the difficulties involved in identifying unmarked individualss, which could lead to repeated observations of the same bird at the feeding stations. Individuals of this age class have less experience in searching and obtaining food ,  and so are highly dependent on predictable food sources and are much more regular at feeding stations. Thus, over 50 juveniles are sometimes observed at the same site on the same day , . Aside from the inherent difficulties in individualizing a large number of birds, a single individual may visit more than one feeding station in a day (authors' unpubl. data), which would also help explain the overestimation.
Additionally, the results suggest that numbers of subadults and, above all, adult birds were underestimated in visual surveys. Lower numbers of adults may be related to reproductive duties , greater experience in searching for and finding food and special qualitative requirements (a need for small prey items with flesh during the first phases of the breeding period) . All of these factors contribute to a lower dependence of territorial adults on supplementary feeding. Subadult birds are in the phase of territorial prospecting and mate-choice since pair-forming takes place at five-years old and territorial establishment at 6.5 years old .
Counts at fixed points (in our case feeding stations) may be biased by a number of factors , . Thus, winter counts could increase the number of non-experienced individuals (juvenile age-class) observed, since they are more dependent on resources that are predictable in space and time during periods of adverse weather. At high bird densities (as occurs at feeding stations) observers may be overwhelmed by the numbers of birds to be identified and counted, thus hampering the separation of previously recorded individuals . In addition, other factors such as food availability and the presence of competitors may also seriously affect the presence and abundance of individual birds , .
In conclusion, visual surveys are not useful for detecting small-scale variations in population sizes or for establishing the real age structure of a population. From a conservation point of view, this is potentially quite serious since the strategies implemented by administrations are often scarcely flexible and based on information that is difficult to keep up-to-date for proper adaptive management. Thus, visual surveys were likewise unable to detect a tendency towards stabilization in the study population size during 2004–2006. Taking into account the fact that in long-lived species population growth is generally highly sensitive to changes in adult survival [13,14,51, but see 52], the evaluations of population trends based on visual surveys tend to be over-optimistic and slow to detect regressive tendencies. In contrast, counts at feeding stations can provide useful information if visual surveys are focused on the monitoring of marked birds. When demographic data (i.e., capture-recapture) and counts (i.e., visual surveys) are both available, they can be analysed in conjunction using integrated population models (see  and references therein). These procedures have many advantages in terms of parameter estimations and accuracy, allowing the estimation of more demographic quantities, being the parameter estimates more precise. This also would allow including all sources of uncertainty due to process variability and the sampling processes . In the case of the bearded vulture in the Pyrenees, capture-recapture approaches have sounded the alarm regarding the conservation status of the largest European population of this species , which suffers high mortality rates due to poisoned baits  and lead poisoning . Likewise, the importance of demographic studies for planning conservation strategies becomes even greater in light of the fall in fecundity as a consequence of the density-dependence phenomenon, the ingestion of drugs, and the increase in the number of polyandrous groups , , .
Our findings are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share common life-history traits and ecological requirements. Thus, estimations of the size of “cryptic” fraction of the populations  may be misleading in those scenarios leading to the spatial concentration of individuals. Despite being a more time-consuming method and the fact that its robustness depends on the number of individuals marked, population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures would seem to be the only reliable and robust way of assessing age-structure and thus enabling the basis of conservation measures on objective data . Given that currently most vulture populations are reinforced by supplementary feeding programmes ,  and that several estimates of declining populations are based on visual surveys , , conservationists and managers should take into account the biases that these rapid surveys entail.
Field work was done by volunteers and Agentes Forestales from the Bask Country, Navarre, Aragon and Catalonia. The data were coordinated and centralized by the Spanish Ministry of Environment who kindly provided us this information. The comments of Michael Schaub and an anonymous reviewer improved this manuscript.
Conceived and designed the experiments: AM DO ACA RH JAD. Performed the experiments: AM RH. Analyzed the data: AM DO ACA JAD. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: AM DO ACA RH JAD. Wrote the paper: AM DO ACA RH JAD.
- 1. Pienkowski MW (1991) Using long-term ornithological studies in setting targets for conservation in Britain. Ibis. 133. pp. 62–75.MW Pienkowski1991Using long-term ornithological studies in setting targets for conservation in Britain.Ibis133suppl. I6275
- 2. Klomp NI, Furness RW (1992) Non-breeders as a buffer against environmental stress: declines in numbers of great skuas on Foula, Shetland, and prediction of future recruitment. J Appl Ecol: 29: 341–348.NI KlompRW Furness1992Non-breeders as a buffer against environmental stress: declines in numbers of great skuas on Foula, Shetland, and prediction of future recruitment.J Appl Ecol:29341348
- 3. Sternberg H, Grinkov VG, Ivankina E, Ilyina T, Kerimov AB, et al. (2002) Evaluation of the size and composition of nonbreeding surplus in a pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population: removal experiments in Germany and Russia. Ardea 90: 461–470.H. SternbergVG GrinkovE. IvankinaT. IlyinaAB Kerimov2002Evaluation of the size and composition of nonbreeding surplus in a pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population: removal experiments in Germany and Russia.Ardea90461470
- 4. Whitfield DF, Fielding AH, McLeod DRA, Haworth PF (2004) Modelling the effects of persecution on the population dynamics of golden eagles in Scotland. Biol Conserv 119: 319–333.DF WhitfieldAH FieldingDRA McLeodPF Haworth2004Modelling the effects of persecution on the population dynamics of golden eagles in Scotland.Biol Conserv119319333
- 5. McGowan CP, Joshua J, Millspaugh MR, Casey DK, Pavelka G (2009) Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data. J Field Ornithol 80: 79–87.CP McGowanJ. JoshuaMR MillspaughDK CaseyG. Pavelka2009Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data.J Field Ornithol807987
- 6. Franklin AB (1992) Population regulation in northern spotted owls: theoretical implications for management. McCullough D, Barret R, eds. Wildlife 2001: Populations. London: Elsevier. pp. 815–827.AB Franklin1992Population regulation in northern spotted owls: theoretical implications for management.McCullough D, Barret R, edsWildlife 2001Populations. London: Elsevier815827
- 7. Penteriani V, Otalora F, Sergio F, Ferrer M (2005) Environmental stochasticity in dispersal areas can explain the “mysterious” disappearance of breeding populations. Proc R Soc Lond Ser B 18: 58–66.V. PenterianiF. OtaloraF. SergioM. Ferrer2005Environmental stochasticity in dispersal areas can explain the “mysterious” disappearance of breeding populations.Proc R Soc Lond Ser B185866
- 8. Rutz C, Bijlsma RG (2006) Food limitation in a generalist predator. Proc R Soc Lond Ser B 273: 2069–2076.C. RutzRG Bijlsma2006Food limitation in a generalist predator.Proc R Soc Lond Ser B27320692076
- 9. González LM, Margalida A, Mañosa S, Sánchez R, Oria J, et al. (2007) Causes and spatio-temporal variations of non-natural mortality in the Vulnerable Spanish imperial Eagle Aquila adalberti during a recovery period. Oryx 41: 495–502.LM GonzálezA. MargalidaS. MañosaR. SánchezJ. Oria2007Causes and spatio-temporal variations of non-natural mortality in the Vulnerable Spanish imperial Eagle Aquila adalberti during a recovery period.Oryx41495502
- 10. Sarasola JH, Negro JJ, Hobson KA, Bortolotti GR, Bildstein KL (2008) Can a “wintering area effect” explain population status of Swainsos hawks? A stable isotope approach. Divers Distrib 14: 686–691.JH SarasolaJJ NegroKA HobsonGR BortolottiKL Bildstein2008Can a “wintering area effect” explain population status of Swainsos hawks? A stable isotope approach.Divers Distrib14686691
- 11. Penteriani V, Ferrer M, Delgado MM (2011) Floater strategies and dynamics in birds, and their importance in conservation biology: towards an understanding of nonbreeders in avian populations. Anim Conserv 14: 233–241.V. PenterianiM. FerrerMM Delgado2011Floater strategies and dynamics in birds, and their importance in conservation biology: towards an understanding of nonbreeders in avian populations.Anim Conserv14233241
- 12. Katzner TE, Ivy JAR, Bragin EA, Milner-Gulland EJ, DeWoody JA (2011) Conservation implications of inaccurate estimation of cryptic population size Anim Conserv 14: 328–332.TE KatznerJAR IvyEA BraginEJ Milner-GullandJA DeWoody2011Conservation implications of inaccurate estimation of cryptic population size Anim Conserv14328332
- 13. Grande JM, Serrano D, Tavecchia G, Carrete M, Ceballos O et al (2009) Survival in a long-lived territorial migrant: effects of life-history traits and ecological conditions in wintering and breeding areas. Oikos 118: 580–590.JM GrandeD. SerranoG. TavecchiaM. Carreteal Ceballos O et2009Survival in a long-lived territorial migrant: effects of life-history traits and ecological conditions in wintering and breeding areas.Oikos118580590
- 14. Ortega E, Mañosa S, Margalida A, Sánchez R, Oria J et al (2009) A demographic description of the recovery of the Vulnerable Spanish imperial Eagle Aquila adalberti. Oryx 43: 113–121.E. OrtegaS. MañosaA. MargalidaR. Sánchezal Oria J et2009A demographic description of the recovery of the Vulnerable Spanish imperial Eagle Aquila adalberti.Oryx43113121
- 15. Newton I (1992) Experiments on the limitation of bird numbers by territorial behavior. Biol Rev 67: 129–173.I. Newton1992Experiments on the limitation of bird numbers by territorial behavior.Biol Rev67129173
- 16. Rohner C (1996) The numerical response of great horned owls to the snowshoe hare cycle: consequences of non-territorial “floaters” on demography. J Anim Ecol 65: 359–370.C. Rohner1996The numerical response of great horned owls to the snowshoe hare cycle: consequences of non-territorial “floaters” on demography.J Anim Ecol65359370
- 17. Sergio F, Blas J , Hiraldo F (2009) Predictors of floater status in a long-lived bird: a cross-sectional and longitudinal test of hypothesis. J Anim Ecol 78: 109–118.F. SergioBlas JF. Hiraldo2009Predictors of floater status in a long-lived bird: a cross-sectional and longitudinal test of hypothesis.J Anim Ecol78109118
- 18. Brown CJ (1997) Population dynamics of the bearded vulture Gypaetus barbatus in southern Africa. Afr J Ecol 35: 53–63.CJ Brown1997Population dynamics of the bearded vulture Gypaetus barbatus in southern Africa.Afr J Ecol355363
- 19. Huot M, Ibarzabal J (2006) A comparison of the age-class structure of black-backed woodpeckers found in recently burned and unburned boreal coniferous forests in eastern Canada. Ann Zool Fennici 43: 131–136.M. HuotJ. Ibarzabal2006A comparison of the age-class structure of black-backed woodpeckers found in recently burned and unburned boreal coniferous forests in eastern Canada.Ann Zool Fennici43131136
- 20. Green RE (2008) Demographic mechanism of a historical bird population collapse reconstructed using museum specimens. Proc R Soc B 275: 2381–2387.RE Green2008Demographic mechanism of a historical bird population collapse reconstructed using museum specimens.Proc R Soc B27523812387
- 21. Van Beest F, Van den Bremer L, De Boer WF, Heitkönig IA, Monteiro A (2008) Population dynamics and spatial distribution of Griffon Vultures (Gyps fulvus) in Portugal. Bird Conserv Int 18: 102–117.F. Van BeestL. Van den BremerWF De BoerIA HeitkönigA. Monteiro2008Population dynamics and spatial distribution of Griffon Vultures (Gyps fulvus) in Portugal.Bird Conserv Int18102117
- 22. Cortés-Avizanda A, Almaraz P, Carrete M, Sánchez-Zapata JA, Delgado A et al (2011) Spatial heterogeneity in resource distribution promotes facultative sociality in two trans-Saharan migratory birds. PLoS ONE 6: e21016.A. Cortés-AvizandaP. AlmarazM. CarreteJA Sánchez-Zapataal Delgado A et2011Spatial heterogeneity in resource distribution promotes facultative sociality in two trans-Saharan migratory birds.PLoS ONE6e21016
- 23. Clarke R, Watson D (1990) The Hen Harrier Circus cyaneus winter roost survey in Britain and Ireland. Bird Study 37: 84–100.R. ClarkeD. Watson1990The Hen Harrier Circus cyaneus winter roost survey in Britain and Ireland.Bird Study3784100
- 24. Bibby CJ, Burgess ND, Hill DA (1993) Bird Census Techniques. London: Academic Press Limited. CJ BibbyND BurgessDA Hill1993Bird Census Techniques.LondonAcademic Press Limited
- 25. Donázar JA, Ceballos O, Tella JL (1996) Communal roost of Egyptian vultures (Neophron percnopterus): dynamics and implications for the species conservation. Muntaner J, Mayol J, eds. Biology and Conservation of Mediterranean Raptors. Monograph 4. Madrid: SEO/BirdLife. pp. 189–202.JA DonázarO. CeballosJL Tella1996Communal roost of Egyptian vultures (Neophron percnopterus): dynamics and implications for the species conservation.Muntaner J, Mayol J, edsBiology and Conservation of Mediterranean Raptors. Monograph 4. MadridSEO/BirdLife189202
- 26. Kasprzykowski Z, Ciesluk P (2011) Rough-legged Buzzard Buteo lagopuswintering in central eastern Poland: population structure by age and sex, and the effect of weather conditions. Orn Fenn 88: 98–103.Z. KasprzykowskiP. Ciesluk2011Rough-legged Buzzard Buteo lagopuswintering in central eastern Poland: population structure by age and sex, and the effect of weather conditions.Orn Fenn8898103
- 27. Thomas L (1996) Monitoring long-term population change: why are there so many analysis methods? Ecology 77: 49–58.L. Thomas1996Monitoring long-term population change: why are there so many analysis methods?Ecology774958
- 28. Adkinson MD, Quinn TJ II, Small J (2003) Evaluation of the Alaskan harbour seal(Phoca vitulina) population survey: a simulation study. Mar Mamm Sci 19: 764–790.MD AdkinsonII Quinn TJJ. Small2003Evaluation of the Alaskan harbour seal(Phoca vitulina) population survey: a simulation study.Mar Mamm Sci19764790
- 29. Holt KR, Cox SP (2008) Evaluation of visual survey methods for monitoring Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) escapement in relation to conservation guidelines. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 65: 212–226.KR HoltSP Cox2008Evaluation of visual survey methods for monitoring Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) escapement in relation to conservation guidelines.Can J Fish Aquat Sci65212226
- 30. Taylor SL, Pollard KS (2008) Evaluation of two methods to estimate and monitor bird populations. PLoS ONE 3: e3047.SL TaylorKS Pollard2008Evaluation of two methods to estimate and monitor bird populations.PLoS ONE3e3047
- 31. Margalida A, Bertran J, Heredia R (2009) Diet and food preferences of the endangered Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus: a basis for their conservation. Ibis 151: 235–243.A. MargalidaJ. BertranR. Heredia2009Diet and food preferences of the endangered Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus: a basis for their conservation.Ibis151235243
- 32. Heredia R (1991) Alimentación suplementaria. Heredia R, Heredia B eds. El Quebrantahuesos (Gypaetus barbatus) en los Pirineos. Colección Técnica. Madrid: ICONA. pp. 101–108.R. Heredia1991Alimentación suplementaria.Heredia R, Heredia B edsEl Quebrantahuesos (Gypaetus barbatus) en los Pirineos. Colección Técnica. MadridICONA101108
- 33. Sesé JA, Antor RJ, Alcántara M, Ascaso JC, Gil JA (2005) La alimentación suplementaria en el quebrantahuesos: estudio de un comedero del Pirineo occidental aragonés. Margalida A, Heredia R eds. Biología de la conservación del quebrantahuesos Gypaetus barbatus en España. Madrid: Organismo Autónomo Parques Nacionales. pp. 279–304.JA SeséRJ AntorM. AlcántaraJC AscasoJA Gil2005La alimentación suplementaria en el quebrantahuesos: estudio de un comedero del Pirineo occidental aragonés.Margalida A, Heredia R edsBiología de la conservación del quebrantahuesos Gypaetus barbatus en España. MadridOrganismo Autónomo Parques Nacionales279304
- 34. MMA (2001) Estrategia para la conservación del quebrantahuesos (Gypaetus barbatus) en España. Madrid: Ministerio de Medio Ambiente. MMA2001Estrategia para la conservación del quebrantahuesos (Gypaetus barbatus) en España.MadridMinisterio de Medio Ambiente
- 35. Oro D, Margalida A, Carrete M, Heredia R, Donázar JA (2008) Testing the goodness of supplementary feeding to enhance population viability in an endangered vulture. PLoS ONE 3: e4084.D. OroA. MargalidaM. CarreteR. HerediaJA Donázar2008Testing the goodness of supplementary feeding to enhance population viability in an endangered vulture.PLoS ONE3e4084
- 36. Margalida A, García D, Bertran J, Heredia R (2003) Breeding biology and successof the Bearded Vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) in the eastern Pyrenees. Ibis 145: 244–252.A. MargalidaD. GarcíaJ. BertranR. Heredia2003Breeding biology and successof the Bearded Vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) in the eastern Pyrenees.Ibis145244252
- 37. Margalida A, Heredia R (2005) Biología de la conservación del Quebrantahuesos Gypaetus barbatus en España. Madrid: Organismo Autónomo Parques Nacionales. A. MargalidaR. Heredia2005Biología de la conservación del Quebrantahuesos Gypaetus barbatus en España.MadridOrganismo Autónomo Parques Nacionales
- 38. Carrete M, Donázar JA, Margalida A (2006) Density-dependent productivity depression in Pyrenean bearded vultures: implications for conservation. Ecol Appl 16: 1674–1682.M. CarreteJA DonázarA. Margalida2006Density-dependent productivity depression in Pyrenean bearded vultures: implications for conservation.Ecol Appl1616741682
- 39. Caswell H (2001) Matrix population models. Sunderland: Sinauer Associates. H. Caswell2001Matrix population models.SunderlandSinauer Associates
- 40. Charlesworth B (1980) Evolution in age-structured population.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. B. Charlesworth1980Evolution in age-structured population.CambridgeCambridge University Press
- 41. McCullagh P, Searle SR (2000) Generalized Linear and Mixed Models. Wiley-Interscience, New York, USA. P. McCullaghSR Searle2000Generalized Linear and Mixed Models.Wiley-Interscience, New York, USA
- 42. SAS Institute Inc (2009) SAS /STAT 9.2., Language Reference: Concepts. Cary NC: SAS Institute Inc. SAS Institute Inc2009SAS /STAT 9.2., Language Reference: Concepts.Cary NC: SAS Institute Inc
- 43. Cortés-Avizanda A, Carrete M, Donázar JA (2010) Managing supplementary feeding for avian scavengers: guidelines for optimal design using ecological criteria. Biol Conserv 143: 1707–1715.A. Cortés-AvizandaM. CarreteJA Donázar2010Managing supplementary feeding for avian scavengers: guidelines for optimal design using ecological criteria.Biol Conserv14317071715
- 44. Carrete M, Lambertucci SA, Speziale K, Ceballos O, Travaini A, et al. (2010) Winners and losers in human-made habitats: interspecific competition outcomes in two Neotropical vultures. Anim Conserv 13: 390–398.M. CarreteSA LambertucciK. SpezialeO. CeballosA. Travaini2010Winners and losers in human-made habitats: interspecific competition outcomes in two Neotropical vultures.Anim Conserv13390398
- 45. Wunderle M JR (1991) Age-specific foraging proficiency in birds. Currt Ornithol8: 273–324.M JR Wunderle1991Age-specific foraging proficiency in birds.CurrtOrnithol8273324
- 46. Margalida A, Bertran J (2003) Inter and intraspecific kleptoparasitic interactions ofthe Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus at nesting areas. J Raptor Res 37: 157–160.A. MargalidaJ. Bertran2003Inter and intraspecific kleptoparasitic interactions ofthe Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus at nesting areas.J Raptor Res37157160
- 47. Margalida A, Bertran J (2000) Breeding behaviour of the Bearded Vulture(Gypaetus barbatus): minimal sexual differences in parental activities. Ibis 142: 225–234.A. MargalidaJ. Bertran2000Breeding behaviour of the Bearded Vulture(Gypaetus barbatus): minimal sexual differences in parental activities.Ibis142225234
- 48. Antor RJ, Margalida A, Frey H, Heredia R, Lorente L, et al. (2007) Age of firstbreeding in wild and captive populations of Bearded Vultures (Gypaetus barbatus). Acta Ornithol 42: 114–118.RJ AntorA. MargalidaH. FreyR. HerediaL. Lorente2007Age of firstbreeding in wild and captive populations of Bearded Vultures (Gypaetus barbatus).Acta Ornithol42114118
- 49. Williams AK, Berkson J (2004) Reducing false absences in survey data: detection probabilities of red-backed salamanders. J Wildl Manage 68: 418–428.AK WilliamsJ. Berkson2004Reducing false absences in survey data: detection probabilities of red-backed salamanders.J Wildl Manage68418428
- 50. Margalida A, Colomer MA, Sanuy D (2011) Can wild ungulate carcasses provide enough biomass to maintain avian scavenger populations? An empirical assessment using a bio-inspired computational model. PLoS ONE 6: e20248.A. MargalidaMA ColomerD. Sanuy2011Can wild ungulate carcasses provide enough biomass to maintain avian scavenger populations? An empirical assessment using a bio-inspired computational model.PLoS ONE6e20248
- 51. Lebreton JD, Clobert J (1991) Bird populations dynamics, management and conservation: the role of mathematical modelling. Perrins CM, Lebreton JD Hirons GJMm eds. Bird population studies. Oxford: Oxford University Press. pp. 105–125.JD LebretonJ. Clobert1991Bird populations dynamics, management and conservation: the role of mathematical modelling.Perrins CM, Lebreton JD Hirons GJMm edsBird population studies. OxfordOxford University Press105125
- 52. Sergio F, Tavecchia G, Blas J, López L, Tanferna A, et al. (2011) Variation in age-structured vital rates of a long-lived raptor: Implications for population growth. Basic Appl Ecol 12: 107–115.F. SergioG. TavecchiaJ. BlasL. LópezA. Tanferna2011Variation in age-structured vital rates of a long-lived raptor: Implications for population growth.Basic Appl Ecol12107115
- 53. Schaub M, Abadi F (2011) Integrated population models: a novel analysis framework for deeper insights into population dynamics. J Orn 152: Suppl 1S227–S237.M. SchaubF. Abadi2011Integrated population models: a novel analysis framework for deeper insights into population dynamics.J Orn152Suppl 1S227S237
- 54. Margalida A, Heredia R, Razin M, Hernández M (2008) Sources of variation in mortality of the Bearded vulture Gypaetus barbatus. Bird Conserv Int 18: 1–10.A. MargalidaR. HerediaM. RazinM. Hernández2008Sources of variation in mortality of the Bearded vulture Gypaetus barbatus.Bird Conserv Int18110
- 55. Hernández M, Margalida A (2009) Assessing the risk of lead exposure for the conservation of the endangered Pyrenean bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population. Environ Res 109: 837–842.M. HernándezA. Margalida2009Assessing the risk of lead exposure for the conservation of the endangered Pyrenean bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population.Environ Res109837842
- 56. Carrete M, Donázar JA, Margalida A, Bertran J (2006) Linking ecology, behaviour and conservation: does habitat saturation changes mating system in bearded vultures? Biol Lett 2: 624–627.M. CarreteJA DonázarA. MargalidaJ. Bertran2006Linking ecology, behaviour and conservation: does habitat saturation changes mating system in bearded vultures?Biol Lett2624627
- 57. Blanco G, Lemus G (2010) Livestock drugs and disease: the fatal combination behind breeding failure in endangered bearded vultures. PLoS ONE 5: e14163.G. BlancoG. Lemus2010Livestock drugs and disease: the fatal combination behind breeding failure in endangered bearded vultures.PLoS ONE5e14163
- 58. Schaub M, Zink R, Beissman H, Sarrazin F, Arlettaz R (2009) When to end releases in reintroduction programmes: demographic rates and population viability analysis of bearded vultures in the Alps. J Appl Ecol 46: 92–100.M. SchaubR. ZinkH. BeissmanF. SarrazinR. Arlettaz2009When to end releases in reintroduction programmes: demographic rates and population viability analysis of bearded vultures in the Alps.J Appl Ecol4692100
- 59. Mundy P, Butchart D, Ledger J, Piper S (1992) The vultures of Africa. London: Academic Press. P. MundyD. ButchartJ. LedgerS. Piper1992The vultures of Africa.LondonAcademic Press
- 60. Donázar JA, Margalida A, Campión D, editors. (2009) Vultures, feeding stations and sanitary legislation: a conflict and its consequences from the perspective of conservation biology. Munibe 29 (Suppl). San Sebastián: Sociedad de Ciencias Aranzadi. JA DonázarA. MargalidaD. Campión2009Vultures, feeding stations and sanitary legislation: a conflict and its consequences from the perspective of conservation biology.Munibe 29 (Suppl). San SebastiánSociedad de Ciencias Aranzadi
- 61. Virani MZ, Kendall C, Njoroge P, Thomsett S (2011) Major declines in the abundance of vultures and other scavenging raptors in and around the Masai Mara ecosystem, Kenya. Biol Conserv 144: 746–752.MZ ViraniC. KendallP. NjorogeS. Thomsett2011Major declines in the abundance of vultures and other scavenging raptors in and around the Masai Mara ecosystem, Kenya.Biol Conserv144746752
- 62. Chaudhary A, Subedi TR, Gir JB, Garal HS, Bidari B, et al. Population trends of critically endangered Gyps vultures in the lowlands of Nepal.Bird Conserv Int. A. ChaudharyTR SubediJB GirHS GaralB. BidariPopulation trends of critically endangered Gyps vultures in the lowlands of Nepal.Bird Conserv Int(In press). (In press).