{\rtf1\adeflang1025\ansi\ansicpg10000\uc1\adeff423\deff0\stshfdbch0\stshfloch0\stshfhich0\stshfbi0\deflang1033\deflangfe1033\themelang1033\themelangfe1041\themelangcs0{\fonttbl{\f0\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2{\*\panose 02020603050405020304}Times New Roman;}{\f1\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2{\*\panose 020b0604020202020204}Arial;}
{\f3\fbidi \fnil\fcharset2\fprq2{\*\panose 02000500000000000000}Symbol;}{\f4\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2{\*\panose 02000500000000000000}Times;}{\f21\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2{\*\panose 020b0604030504040204}Verdana;}
{\f34\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2{\*\panose 02040503050406030204}Cambria Math;}{\f35\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2{\*\panose 020f0502020204030204}Calibri;}
{\f38\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2{\*\panose 020b0600040502020204}Lucida Grande{\*\falt Franklin Gothic Medium Cond};}{\f95\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2{\*\panose 02030602050306030303}Constantia;}
{\f423\fbidi \froman\fcharset128\fprq2{\*\panose 00000000000000000000}Liberation Serif{\*\falt Optima ExtraBlack};}{\f424\fbidi \fnil\fcharset128\fprq0{\*\panose 00000000000000000000}OpenSymbol{\*\falt Arial Unicode MS};}
{\f425\fbidi \fswiss\fcharset128\fprq2{\*\panose 00000000000000000000}Liberation Sans{\*\falt Arial Unicode MS};}{\f426\fbidi \fnil\fcharset128\fprq2{\*\panose 00000000000000000000}DejaVu Sans{\*\falt MS Mincho};}
{\flomajor\f31500\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2{\*\panose 020b0604020202020204}Arial;}{\fdbmajor\f31501\fbidi \fnil\fcharset78\fprq2 \'82\'6c\'82\'72 \'83\'53\'83\'56\'83\'62\'83\'4e;}
{\fhimajor\f31502\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2{\*\panose 020f0502020204030204}Calibri;}{\fbimajor\f31503\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2{\*\panose 02020603050405020304}Times New Roman;}
{\flominor\f31504\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2{\*\panose 02020603050405020304}Times New Roman;}{\fdbminor\f31505\fbidi \fnil\fcharset78\fprq2 \'82\'6c\'82\'72 \'96\'be\'92\'a9;}
{\fhiminor\f31506\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2{\*\panose 02040503050406030204}Cambria;}{\fbiminor\f31507\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2{\*\panose 02020603050405020304}Times New Roman;}{\f427\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 Times New Roman CE;}
{\f428\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 Times New Roman Cyr;}{\f430\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 Times New Roman Greek;}{\f431\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 Times New Roman Tur;}{\f432\fbidi \fnil\fcharset177\fprq2 Times New Roman (Hebrew);}
{\f433\fbidi \fnil\fcharset178\fprq2 Times New Roman (Arabid);}{\f434\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 Times New Roman Baltic;}{\f435\fbidi \fnil\fcharset163\fprq2 Times New Roman (Vietnamese);}{\f437\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 Arial CE;}
{\f438\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 Arial Cyr;}{\f440\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 Arial Greek;}{\f441\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 Arial Tur;}{\f442\fbidi \fnil\fcharset177\fprq2 Arial (Hebrew);}{\f443\fbidi \fnil\fcharset178\fprq2 Arial (Arabid);}
{\f444\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 Arial Baltic;}{\f445\fbidi \fnil\fcharset163\fprq2 Arial (Vietnamese);}{\f637\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 Verdana CE;}{\f638\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 Verdana Cyr;}
{\f640\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 Verdana Greek;}{\f641\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 Verdana Tur;}{\f644\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 Verdana Baltic;}{\f645\fbidi \fnil\fcharset163\fprq2 Verdana (Vietnamese);}
{\f767\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 Cambria Math CE;}{\f768\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 Cambria Math Cyr;}{\f770\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 Cambria Math Greek;}{\f771\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 Cambria Math Tur;}
{\f774\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 Cambria Math Baltic;}{\f775\fbidi \fnil\fcharset163\fprq2 Cambria Math (Vietnamese);}{\f777\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 Calibri CE;}{\f778\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 Calibri Cyr;}
{\f780\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 Calibri Greek;}{\f781\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 Calibri Tur;}{\f784\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 Calibri Baltic;}{\f785\fbidi \fnil\fcharset163\fprq2 Calibri (Vietnamese);}
{\f807\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 Franklin Gothic Medium Cond CE{\*\falt Franklin Gothic Medium Cond};}{\f808\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 Franklin Gothic Medium Cond Cyr{\*\falt Franklin Gothic Medium Cond};}
{\f810\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 Franklin Gothic Medium Cond Greek{\*\falt Franklin Gothic Medium Cond};}{\f811\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 Franklin Gothic Medium Cond Tur{\*\falt Franklin Gothic Medium Cond};}
{\f812\fbidi \fnil\fcharset177\fprq2 Franklin Gothic Medium Cond (Hebrew){\*\falt Franklin Gothic Medium Cond};}{\f814\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 Franklin Gothic Medium Cond Baltic{\*\falt Franklin Gothic Medium Cond};}
{\f815\fbidi \fnil\fcharset163\fprq2 Franklin Gothic Medium Cond (Vietnamese){\*\falt Franklin Gothic Medium Cond};}{\f1377\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 Constantia CE;}{\f1378\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 Constantia Cyr;}
{\f1380\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 Constantia Greek;}{\f1381\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 Constantia Tur;}{\f1384\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 Constantia Baltic;}{\f1385\fbidi \fnil\fcharset163\fprq2 Constantia (Vietnamese);}
{\flomajor\f31508\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 Arial CE;}{\flomajor\f31509\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 Arial Cyr;}{\flomajor\f31511\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 Arial Greek;}{\flomajor\f31512\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 Arial Tur;}
{\flomajor\f31513\fbidi \fnil\fcharset177\fprq2 Arial (Hebrew);}{\flomajor\f31514\fbidi \fnil\fcharset178\fprq2 Arial (Arabid);}{\flomajor\f31515\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 Arial Baltic;}
{\flomajor\f31516\fbidi \fnil\fcharset163\fprq2 Arial (Vietnamese);}{\fdbmajor\f31520\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2 \'82\'6c\'82\'72 \'83\'53\'83\'56\'83\'62\'83\'4e Western;}
{\fdbmajor\f31518\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 \'82\'6c\'82\'72 \'83\'53\'83\'56\'83\'62\'83\'4e CE;}{\fdbmajor\f31519\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 \'82\'6c\'82\'72 \'83\'53\'83\'56\'83\'62\'83\'4e Cyr;}
{\fdbmajor\f31521\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 \'82\'6c\'82\'72 \'83\'53\'83\'56\'83\'62\'83\'4e Greek;}{\fdbmajor\f31522\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 \'82\'6c\'82\'72 \'83\'53\'83\'56\'83\'62\'83\'4e Tur;}
{\fdbmajor\f31525\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 \'82\'6c\'82\'72 \'83\'53\'83\'56\'83\'62\'83\'4e Baltic;}{\fhimajor\f31528\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 Calibri CE;}{\fhimajor\f31529\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 Calibri Cyr;}
{\fhimajor\f31531\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 Calibri Greek;}{\fhimajor\f31532\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 Calibri Tur;}{\fhimajor\f31535\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 Calibri Baltic;}
{\fhimajor\f31536\fbidi \fnil\fcharset163\fprq2 Calibri (Vietnamese);}{\fbimajor\f31538\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 Times New Roman CE;}{\fbimajor\f31539\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 Times New Roman Cyr;}
{\fbimajor\f31541\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 Times New Roman Greek;}{\fbimajor\f31542\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 Times New Roman Tur;}{\fbimajor\f31543\fbidi \fnil\fcharset177\fprq2 Times New Roman (Hebrew);}
{\fbimajor\f31544\fbidi \fnil\fcharset178\fprq2 Times New Roman (Arabid);}{\fbimajor\f31545\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 Times New Roman Baltic;}{\fbimajor\f31546\fbidi \fnil\fcharset163\fprq2 Times New Roman (Vietnamese);}
{\flominor\f31548\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 Times New Roman CE;}{\flominor\f31549\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 Times New Roman Cyr;}{\flominor\f31551\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 Times New Roman Greek;}
{\flominor\f31552\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 Times New Roman Tur;}{\flominor\f31553\fbidi \fnil\fcharset177\fprq2 Times New Roman (Hebrew);}{\flominor\f31554\fbidi \fnil\fcharset178\fprq2 Times New Roman (Arabid);}
{\flominor\f31555\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 Times New Roman Baltic;}{\flominor\f31556\fbidi \fnil\fcharset163\fprq2 Times New Roman (Vietnamese);}{\fdbminor\f31560\fbidi \fnil\fcharset0\fprq2 \'82\'6c\'82\'72 \'96\'be\'92\'a9 Western;}
{\fdbminor\f31558\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 \'82\'6c\'82\'72 \'96\'be\'92\'a9 CE;}{\fdbminor\f31559\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 \'82\'6c\'82\'72 \'96\'be\'92\'a9 Cyr;}
{\fdbminor\f31561\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 \'82\'6c\'82\'72 \'96\'be\'92\'a9 Greek;}{\fdbminor\f31562\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 \'82\'6c\'82\'72 \'96\'be\'92\'a9 Tur;}
{\fdbminor\f31565\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 \'82\'6c\'82\'72 \'96\'be\'92\'a9 Baltic;}{\fhiminor\f31568\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 Cambria CE;}{\fhiminor\f31569\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 Cambria Cyr;}
{\fhiminor\f31571\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 Cambria Greek;}{\fhiminor\f31572\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 Cambria Tur;}{\fhiminor\f31575\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 Cambria Baltic;}
{\fhiminor\f31576\fbidi \fnil\fcharset163\fprq2 Cambria (Vietnamese);}{\fbiminor\f31578\fbidi \fnil\fcharset238\fprq2 Times New Roman CE;}{\fbiminor\f31579\fbidi \fnil\fcharset204\fprq2 Times New Roman Cyr;}
{\fbiminor\f31581\fbidi \fnil\fcharset161\fprq2 Times New Roman Greek;}{\fbiminor\f31582\fbidi \fnil\fcharset162\fprq2 Times New Roman Tur;}{\fbiminor\f31583\fbidi \fnil\fcharset177\fprq2 Times New Roman (Hebrew);}
{\fbiminor\f31584\fbidi \fnil\fcharset178\fprq2 Times New Roman (Arabid);}{\fbiminor\f31585\fbidi \fnil\fcharset186\fprq2 Times New Roman Baltic;}{\fbiminor\f31586\fbidi \fnil\fcharset163\fprq2 Times New Roman (Vietnamese);}}{\colortbl;\red0\green0\blue0;
\red0\green0\blue255;\red0\green255\blue255;\red0\green255\blue0;\red255\green0\blue255;\red255\green0\blue0;\red255\green255\blue0;\red255\green255\blue255;\red0\green0\blue128;\red0\green128\blue128;\red0\green128\blue0;\red128\green0\blue128;
\red128\green0\blue0;\red128\green128\blue0;\red128\green128\blue128;\red192\green192\blue192;}{\*\defchp }{\*\defpap \ql \li0\ri0\widctlpar\wrapdefault\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 }\noqfpromote {\stylesheet{
\ql \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \af423\afs24\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \fs24\lang1033\langfe1081\loch\f423\hich\af0\dbch\af423\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1081
\snext0 \sqformat \spriority0 Normal;}{\s2\ql \li0\ri0\sb240\sa60\keepn\widctlpar\wrapdefault\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\outlinelevel1\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \ab\ai\af1\afs28\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0
\b\f21\fs25\lang1033\langfe1033\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1033 \sbasedon0 \snext0 \slink15 \sqformat \spriority9 \styrsid5718491 heading 2;}{\*\cs10 \additive \spriority1 Default Paragraph Font;}{\*
\ts11\tsrowd\trftsWidthB3\trpaddl108\trpaddr108\trpaddfl3\trpaddft3\trpaddfb3\trpaddfr3\tblind0\tblindtype3\tsvertalt\tsbrdrt\tsbrdrl\tsbrdrb\tsbrdrr\tsbrdrdgl\tsbrdrdgr\tsbrdrh\tsbrdrv
\ql \li0\ri0\widctlpar\wrapdefault\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs20\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \fs20\lang1033\langfe1033\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1033 \snext11 \ssemihidden \sunhideused Normal Table;}{\*\cs15 \additive
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f21\fs28 \sbasedon10 \slink2 \slocked \spriority9 \styrsid5718491 Heading 2 Char;}{\*\cs16 \additive \spriority0 Absatz-Standardschriftart;}{\*\cs17 \additive \spriority0 WW-Absatz-Standardschriftart;}{\*\cs18 \additive
\f3 \spriority0 WW8Num5z0;}{\*\cs19 \additive \f3 \spriority0 WW8Num6z0;}{\*\cs20 \additive \f3 \spriority0 WW8Num7z0;}{\*\cs21 \additive \f3 \spriority0 WW8Num8z0;}{\*\cs22 \additive \f3 \spriority0 WW8Num10z0;}{\*\cs23 \additive
\loch\f3\hich\af3\dbch\af424 \spriority0 WW8Num11z0;}{\*\cs24 \additive \spriority0 WW8Num12z0;}{\*\cs25 \additive \spriority0 WW-Default Paragraph Font;}{\*\cs26 \additive \spriority0 WW-Absatz-Standardschriftart1;}{\*\cs27 \additive \fs24\cf1
\spriority0 WW8Num1z0;}{\*\cs28 \additive \ul\cf2 \spriority0 Internet link;}{\*\cs29 \additive \rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \fs16 \sbasedon10 annotation reference;}{\*\cs30 \additive \f0 \spriority0 Comment Text Char;}{\*\cs31 \additive \f35\fs22
\spriority0 Header Char;}{\*\cs32 \additive \f35\fs22 \spriority0 Footer Char;}{\*\cs33 \additive \rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \i \sbasedon10 \sqformat \spriority20 Emphasis;}{\*\cs34 \additive \spriority0 note reference;}{\*\cs35 \additive \spriority0
note reference_1;}{\*\cs36 \additive \rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \ul\cf2 \sbasedon10 Hyperlink;}{\*\cs37 \additive \rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \ul\cf12 \sbasedon10 FollowedHyperlink;}{\*\cs38 \additive \rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \sbasedon25
page number;}{\s39\ql \li0\ri0\sb240\sa120\sl276\slmult1\keepn\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \af426\afs28\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0
\fs28\lang1033\langfe1025\loch\f425\hich\af0\dbch\af425\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1025 \sbasedon45 \snext40 \spriority0 Heading;}{\s40\ql \li0\ri0\sa120\sl276\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs22\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \f35\fs22\lang1033\langfe1025\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1025 \sbasedon45 \snext40 \slink41 Body Text;}{\*\cs41 \additive \rtlch\fcs1 \af423\afs24\alang0 \ltrch\fcs0
\fs24\lang0\langfe1081\loch\f423\dbch\af423\langfenp1081 \sbasedon10 \slink40 \slocked \ssemihidden Body Text Char;}{\s42\ql \li0\ri0\sa120\sl276\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs22\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \f35\fs22\lang1033\langfe1025\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1025 \sbasedon40 \snext42 List;}{\s43\ql \li0\ri0\sb120\sa120\sl276\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \i\f35\fs24\lang1033\langfe1025\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1025 \sbasedon45 \snext43 \sqformat \spriority35 caption;}{\s44\ql \li0\ri0\sa200\sl276\slmult1
\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs22\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \f35\fs22\lang1033\langfe1025\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1025 \sbasedon45 \snext44 \spriority0 Index;}{
\s45\ql \li0\ri0\sa200\sl276\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs22\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \f35\fs22\lang1033\langfe1025\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1025 \snext45 \spriority0
Standard;}{\s46\ql \li0\ri0\sa200\sl276\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs18\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \f38\fs18\lang1033\langfe1025\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1025
\sbasedon45 \snext46 \slink47 Balloon Text;}{\*\cs47 \additive \rtlch\fcs1 \af38\afs18\alang0 \ltrch\fcs0 \fs18\lang0\langfe1081\loch\f38\hich\af38\dbch\af423\langfenp1081 \sbasedon10 \slink46 \slocked \ssemihidden Balloon Text Char;}{
\s48\ql \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs20\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \fs20\lang1033\langfe1025\loch\f0\hich\af0\dbch\af426\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1025
\sbasedon45 \snext48 \slink49 annotation text;}{\*\cs49 \additive \rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1033\langfe1025\dbch\af426\langnp1033\langfenp1025 \sbasedon10 \slink48 \slocked \styrsid5379960 Comment Text Char1;}{
\s50\ql \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs20\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \f4\fs24\cf1\lang1033\langfe1025\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1025 \snext50 \spriority0 Body A;}{
\s51\ql \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs22\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \f35\fs22\lang1033\langfe1025\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1025 \sbasedon45 \snext51 \slink52 header;}{\*\cs52
\additive \rtlch\fcs1 \af423\afs24\alang0 \ltrch\fcs0 \fs24\lang0\langfe1081\loch\f423\dbch\af423\langfenp1081 \sbasedon10 \slink51 \slocked \ssemihidden Header Char1;}{
\s53\ql \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs22\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \f35\fs22\lang1033\langfe1025\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1025 \sbasedon45 \snext53 \slink54 footer;}{\*\cs54
\additive \rtlch\fcs1 \af423\afs24\alang0 \ltrch\fcs0 \fs24\lang0\langfe1081\loch\f423\dbch\af423\langfenp1081 \sbasedon10 \slink53 \slocked \ssemihidden Footer Char1;}{
\s55\ql \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \af423\afs24\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \fs24\lang1033\langfe1081\loch\f423\hich\af0\dbch\af423\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1081 \snext55 \spriority0
Frame;}{\s56\ql \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \af423\afs24\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0 \fs24\lang1033\langfe1081\loch\f423\hich\af0\dbch\af423\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1081
\snext56 \spriority0 Graphics;}{\s57\ql \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \af423\afs24\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0
\fs24\lang1033\langfe1081\loch\f423\hich\af0\dbch\af423\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1081 \snext57 \spriority0 OLE;}{\s58\ql \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1 \af423\afs24\alang1033
\ltrch\fcs0 \fs24\lang1033\langfe1081\loch\f423\hich\af0\dbch\af423\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1081 \snext58 \spriority0 note text;}{\s59\ql \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 \rtlch\fcs1
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\b\f0\fs24\insrsid5718491\charrsid5718491 Supporting Information}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f0\fs24\insrsid1472710\charrsid5718491
\par }\pard\plain \ltrpar\s2\ql \li0\ri0\sb240\sa60\keepn\widctlpar\wrapdefault\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\outlinelevel1\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 \rtlch\fcs1 \ab\ai\af1\afs28\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0
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s San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change\u8221\'d3
\par }\pard\plain \ltrpar\s45\ql \li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 \rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs22\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0
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\par }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f0\fs24\insrsid6699355\charrsid6699355 Expanded Methods}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f0\fs24\insrsid1472710\charrsid6699355
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi720\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid7158382\charrsid131865 We chose to evaluate two }{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15020434\charrsid131865 very different }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid7158382\charrsid131865 scenarios }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15020434\charrsid131865
from}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid7158382\charrsid131865 the GCM projections used in the IPCC Fourth Assess}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 ment Report}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid7158382\charrsid131865 . }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15020434\charrsid131865
The PCM-B1 climate scenario portrays the B1 emissions scenario (representing a future where GHG emissions are curtailed by mid-century) as modeled by the Parallel Climate Model, a model with relatively low sensitivity to GHG em
issions. The GFDL-A2 climate scenario represents the A2 emissions scenario (corresponding to a future of continually increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases) as modeled by }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid16084856\charrsid131865 the}{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15020434\charrsid131865 (medium-sensitivity) NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3345573\charrsid131865 CM2.1 model}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15020434\charrsid131865 . We selected these model-specific scenarios to compare projections of a}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10430765\charrsid131865 moderately}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15020434\charrsid131865 warmer future with little change in precipitation (PCM1-B1) to a much warmer and drier future (GFDL-A2).}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid16084856\charrsid131865
While no wetter-on-average scenario was evaluated, precipitation in the PCM-B1 scenario spans nearly the entire range of interann}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3345573\charrsid131865 ual precipitation variability in}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid16084856\charrsid131865 the 84-member e}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid91870\charrsid131865 nsemble }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 (see Fig. 10, }
{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 ADDIN EN.CITE Cayan2008250[1]25025017Cayan, Daniel R.Maurer, Edwin
P
.Dettinger, Michael D.Tyree, MaryHayhoe, KatharineClimate change scenarios for the California regionClimatic ChangeClimatic Change21-4287S120080165-0009
1573-148010.1007/s10584-
007-9377-6}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_1" \\o "Cayan, 2008 #250" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000008000000090000005f0045004e005200450046005f0031000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 1}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 )}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid16084856\charrsid131865 . The central tendency of GCM proj}
{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid91870\charrsid131865 ections }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid16084856\charrsid131865 is for little precipitation change for smaller warming trends and drier conditions for projectio
ns that show a }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid334934\charrsid131865 greater warming}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid16084856\charrsid131865 . In fact, few climate }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid10430765\charrsid131865 scenarios produced by the AR4 suite of GCMs}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid16084856\charrsid131865 portray a trend towards more average annual precipitation in California.}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid7158382\charrsid131865
\par }\pard\plain \ltrpar\ql \fi720\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 \rtlch\fcs1 \af423\afs24\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0
\fs24\lang1033\langfe1081\loch\af423\hich\af0\dbch\af423\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1081 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid7158382\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
While there are multiple sources of uncertainty in this study, the complexity of the s\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
ystems being studied and the detailed nature of our investigations make the evaluation of a large ensemble of scenarios that would be necessary for a full uncertainty assessment prohibitively difficult. One of the largest sources of uncertainty is apparen
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 t\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 in the range of changes contained in the suite of GCM projections used in AR4. By selecting two very different scenarios from this suite, we are able to }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\loch\af0\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 evaluate}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid7158382\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 how }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 the uncertainty reflected in the differences among}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid16084856\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 global climate models and emissions sc\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 enarios
}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid7158382\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 manifests in the San Francisco Bay-Delta-watershed system, as refle}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
cted by a diverse collection of }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid7158382\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 environmental indicators.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid1800472\charrsid131865
\par }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid8192032\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 Our general approach was to use linked models, each representing a different component of the system, to propagate the effe\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
cts of the climate scenarios described above through the Bay-Delta watershed/estuary system. Ultimately we portrayed these effects with a series of environmental indicators representing all components.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\cf6\loch\af0\insrsid7831373\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 These indicators were developed for the current centur
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 y (2010-2099) and for a historical baseline period, defined as 1970-1999 to capture recent historical beh}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid4218106 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 avior (1999 is the end year of }{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\f0 the \u8220\'d2\loch\f0 \hich\f0 historical\u8221\'d3\loch\f0 GCM runs\hich\f0 \emdash \loch\f0
see below). For all indicators, observation-based and model-based indicators were produced for\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
the historical period to allow for model evaluation as well as to provide a baseline against which to assess the scenario projections.
\par \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\f0 For those indicators based directly on GCM output (air temperature, precipitation, and sea level), \u8220\'d2\loch\f0 \hich\f0 historical\u8221\'d3\loch\f0 GCM simu\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\f0
lations (driven by historical GHG forcings but otherwise unconstrained by observations) by the PCM and GFDL models were used to produce the \u8220\'d2\loch\f0 \hich\f0 model-based\u8221\'d3\loch\f0
historical indicators. Due to the nature of these indicators, they will not agree on a year-to-year b\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 a\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 sis with the corresponding ob}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\loch\af0\insrsid9205089\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 servation-based indicators (}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid6651692 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 Fig.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\loch\af0\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
2), and can only be used for model evaluation with regard to overall model bias and variance during the historical period. They also provide a useful baseline against which to compare the corres\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 ponding projections.
\par \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
For all other indicators, the model-based historical indicators are ultimately based on observed meteorological forcings, although they do reflect any errors introduced by the chain of linked models used to produce them. As such, these
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\f0 indicators allow for direct model evaluation by comparison with the corresponding \u8220\'d2\loch\f0 \hich\f0 observation-based\u8221\'d3\loch\f0
time series, as well as providing a model-based baseline against which to compare the model-based projections.
\par }\pard\plain \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 \rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs22\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0
\f35\fs22\lang1033\langfe1025\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1025 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865 A detailed description of the individual component methods}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid1317238\charrsid131865 follows.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\cf6\insrsid9520706\charrsid131865
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid669981\charrsid131865
\par }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 Meteorology
\par }\pard\plain \ltrpar\ql \fi720\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 \rtlch\fcs1 \af423\afs24\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0
\fs24\lang1033\langfe1081\loch\af423\hich\af0\dbch\af423\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1081 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 Downscaled simulations of 2}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\loch\af0\insrsid2380512\charrsid131865 0}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \super\loch\af0\insrsid2380512\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 th}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
and 2}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid2380512\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 1}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \super\loch\af0\insrsid2380512\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 st}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 century variations and trends of daily surface-air temperatures and precipitation were used to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on the Bay-Delta and its watershed. F
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
or the present evaluations, climate-change scenarios were derived from climate simulations by two global climate (or general circulation) models (GCMs) under one future global greenhouse-gas emissions scenario each. The GCMs used here were the Geophysical
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 Fluid Dynamics Laboratory\hich\f0 \rquote \loch\f0 s (GFDL) CM2.1 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid3699326
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\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj }{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 [}
{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 HYPERLINK \\\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 l "_ENREF_2" \\
o "Delworth, 2006 #184"\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000008000000090000005f0045004e005200450046005f0032000000
}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 2}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 and the National Center for Atmospheric Research\hich\f0 \rquote \loch\f0 s Parallel Climate Model (PCM) coupled\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 ocean-atmosphere GCM }
{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
ADDIN EN.CITE Washington2000205[3]205
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
20517Washington, W. M.Weatherly, J. W.Meehl, G. A.Semtner Jr, A. J.Bettge, T. W.Craig, A. P.Strand Jr, W. G.Arblaster, J.Wayland, V. B.James, R.Zhang, Y.Parallel climate model (PCM) control and tr
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 a\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
nsient simulationsClimate DynamicsClimate Dynamics755-7741610Earth and Environmental
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 S\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
cience2000Springer Berlin / Heidelberg0930-7575http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382000007910.100
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 7\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 /s003820000079}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 HYPERLINK \\\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
l "_ENREF_3" \\o "Washington, 2000 #205"\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000008000000090000005f0045004e005200450046005f0033000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 3}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
. Daily values of the climate variables from simulations by the GFDL climate model under A2 (rapidly accelerating) greenhouse-gas\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 emissions, by the PCM climate model under B1 (eventually leveling) greenhouse-gas emissions, }{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 and for historical PCM and GFDL model runs (forced using historical emissions) }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 were obtained from the Program for Climate Diagnosis and Intercomparison at the Law\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 rence Livermore National Laboratory }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid4218106
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 (}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
ADDIN EN.CITE Meehl2007193[4]19319317Meehl, Gerald A.Covey, CurtDelworth, ThomasLatif, MojibMcAvaney, BryantMitchell, John F. B.Stouffer, Ronald J.Taylor, Karl E.THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change ResearchBulletin of
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
the American Meteorological SocietyBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyB Am Meteorol Soc1383889\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 20070003-0007
1520-047710.1175/bams-88-9-1383}}{\fldrslt {
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 HYPERLINK \\\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 l "_ENREF_4" \\o "Meehl, 2007 #193"\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000008000000090000005f0045004e005200450046005f0034000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 4}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 ;}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid3829687\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid3829687\charrsid131865
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 HYPERLINK "http://www-p\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 cmdi.llnl.gov/" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 {\*\datafield
00d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000003000000e0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b4e00000068007400740070003a002f002f007700770077002d00700063006d00640069002e006c006c006e006c002e0067006f0076002f000000795881f43b1d7f48af2c825dc485276300000000a5ab000000}}
}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \cs36\ul\cf2\loch\af0\insrsid3829687\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 www-pcmdi.llnl.gov}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid3829687\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 )}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\f0
. The GCM simulations were made on global grids with about 2 to 3\u186\'bc\loch\f0 latitude and longitude resolution (about 250 km at the latitude of the Delta), and thus the original GCM scenarios were too spatially coarse for the pu
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\f0 rposes of this study. The GCM temperatures and precipitation values were downscaled onto a 1/8\u186\'bc\loch\f0 latitude-longitude grid over the conterminous US by a method called Constructed Analogs }
{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 ADDIN EN.CITE Hidalgo2008\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
152[5]1521526Hidalgo
,\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
Hugo G.Dettinger, M. D.Cayan, Daniel R.California Energy Commission. Public Interest Energy Research.,Scripps Institution of Oceanography.,Geological Survey (U.S.),Downscaling with constructed analogues : daily precipitation and temperature fields over the United States : PIER final project reportCalifornia Climate Change Center report seriesx, 48 p.number 2007-027Climatic changes United States Mathematical models.Precipitation forecasting.Temperature measurements.<
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 d\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
ates>2008Sacramento, Calif.California Energy Commission15522527Jefferson or Adams Building Reading Roomsh
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 t\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 tp://bibpurl.oclc.org/web/24038 http://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2007-123}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 HYPERLINK \\\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 l "_ENREF_5" \\o "Hidalgo, 2008 #152"\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000008000000090000005f0045004e005200450046005f0035000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 5}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 . This statistical downscaling\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 method is applied to each day\hich\f0 \rquote \loch\f0
s simulated climate condition in turn, and is based on fitting a linear combination of historical weather patterns (aggregated from the historical fields of Maurer }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid4218106 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 et al.
}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
ADDIN EN.CITE Maurer\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
2002192[6]19219217Maurer, E. P.Wood, A. W.Adam, J. C.Lettenmaier, D. P.Nijssen, B.Lettenmaier, DP
Univ Washington, Dept Civil &
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 E\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
nvironm Engn, POB 352700, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
Univ Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, POB 352700, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
Univ Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
Univ Arizona, Dept Civil Engn & Engn
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 M\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
ech, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA
Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources, Tucson, AZ 85721 USAA long-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United StatesJournal of ClimateJ ClimateJournal of Climate3237-32511522model intercomparison
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 p\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
rojectncep-ncar reanalysissoil-moisturecontinental-scaleriver basinparametrization schemesglobal precipitationspatial vari
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 a\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
bilitywater-balancerouting model2002Nov0894-8755ISI:000178884800008<
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 u\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 rl><Go to ISI>://000178884800008English}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 HYPERLINK \\\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 l "_ENREF_6" \\o "Maurer, 2002 #192"\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000008000000090000005f0045004e005200450046005f0036000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 6}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid15478690\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 onto the GCM grid) that best reproduces the GCM pattern for the day. The coeff\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
icients necessary to make this linear fit are then applied to high-resolution versions of the weather on the same historical days. The approach ensures that, day by day, the weather simulated by the GCM is faithfully carried down to the 12-km scale, and t
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 e\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 nds to yield particularly realistic temperature relations across areas with sharp geographic gradients (e.g., from Delta}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid4218106
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 to Central Valley plains; }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
ADDIN EN.CITE Cayan2009211[7]21121117Cayan, D.Tyree, M
.\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
Dettinger, M.Hidalgo, H.Das, T.Maurer, E.Bromirski, P.Graham, N.Flick, R.Climate change
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
scenarios and sea level rise estimates for California 2008 Climate Change Scenarios Assessment: California Energy Comission Report CEC-500-2009-014-D62 p.2009}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 HYPERLINK \\\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 l "_ENREF_7" \\o "Cayan, 2009 #211"\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000008000000090000005f0045004e005200450046005f0037000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 7}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid4218106
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 )}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
. When applied to the historical record, as a validation exercise, the method reproduces daily temperature variations quite accurately on the 12-km grid given only historical temperatures as observe\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
d on the GCM grids as inputs }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
ADDIN EN.CITE Hidalgo2008152[5]1521526Hidalgo, Hugo G.Dettinger, M. D.Cayan, Daniel R.California Energy Commission. Public Interest Energy Research.,
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 <\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
/author>Scripps Institution of Oceanography.,Geological Survey (U.S.),Downscaling with constructed analogues : daily precipitation and temperature fields over the United States : PI
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 E\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
R final project reportCalifornia Climate Change Center report seriesx, 48 p.number 2007-027Climatic changes United States Mathematical models.
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 <\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
keyword>Precipitation forecasting.Temperature measurements.2008Sacramento, Calif.California Energy Commission15522527Jefferson or Adams Building Reading Roomshttp://bibpurl.oclc.org/web/24038 http://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2007-123}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 HYPERLINK \\\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 l "_ENREF_5" \\o "Hidalgo, 2008 #152"\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 }{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000008000000090000005f0045004e005200450046005f0035000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 5}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 , indicating that the downscaled future-climate patterns are likely to also be realistic. The method was applied to climate simulations spanning the period from 1950-2100}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\loch\af0\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 (from which th\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 e 1970-2099 period used in this study was extracted)}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 , to obtain daily, gridded temperature and precipitation patterns over California, from which watershed-average values were extracted.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid4539870\charrsid131865
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 From these outputs, time series of Delta-averaged temperatures and wa\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 tershed-averaged precipi}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
tation (see }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid6651692 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 Fig.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\loch\af0\insrsid4539870\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 1) were calculated.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
The corresponding averages based on historical observations were derived from the gridded meteorological dataset }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid1904964 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 of}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\loch\af0\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 Maurer et al.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid3957134 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid8678351
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 ADDIN EN.CITE Maurer2002<\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
/Year>514[8]51451417Maurer, E. P.Wood, A. W.Adam, J. C.Lettenmaier, D. P.Nijssen, B.A long-term hydrologically-based data set of land surface fluxes
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 and states for the conterminous United StatesJ. Clim.J. Clim.3237\hich\f0 \endash
\loch\f0 3251.152002}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 HYPERLINK \\\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 l "_ENREF_8" \\o "Maurer, 2002 #514"\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000008000000090000005f0045004e005200450046005f0038000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid2828679 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 8}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \lang1024\langfe1024\loch\af0\noproof\insrsid3699326 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 .
\par }\pard\plain \ltrpar\s45\ql \li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 \rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs22\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0
\f35\fs22\lang1033\langfe1025\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1025 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
\par }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 Sea Level
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
To investigate sea level trends and extremes, a model was constructed }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid4539870\charrsid131865 based on historical data and used to project future water}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 level}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid4539870\charrsid131865 s}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 at the San Francisco }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865 Golden Gate }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 tide gage location}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9205089\charrsid131865 (see }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid6651692 Fig.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9205089\charrsid131865 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid4539870\charrsid131865 1). The model}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid12483024\charrsid131865 consists of}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 four components:
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi-276\li732\ri720\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin720\lin732\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
(a) Synoptic meteorologically-forced sea level fluctuations due to barometric effects (sea level pressure, SLP) and wind stress fluctuations were modeled using a linear regression
scheme. This weather variability, extracted from the GCM simulations, includes local sea level pressure}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid403236 near the San Francisco tide ga}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 ge as well as the regional wind stress. The linear statistical model is based upon on regression of observed sea level n
on-tidal residuals from tide gages vs. local SLP and offshore wind stress from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis output, 1950\endash 2004, as described in Cayan et al}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid4619341\charrsid131865 .}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 ADDIN EN.CITE Cayan2009211[
7]21121117Cayan, D.Tyr
e
e, M.Dettinger, M.Hidalgo, H.Das, T.Maurer, E.Bromirski, P.Graham, N.Flick, R.Climate c
h
ange scenarios and sea level rise estimates for California 2008 Climate Change Scenarios Assessment: California Energy Comission Report CEC-500-2009-014-D62 p.2009}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK
\\l "_ENREF_7" \\o "Cayan, 2009 #211" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000008000000090000005f0045004e005200450046005f0037000000}}
}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 7}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 .
\par }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12550010\charrsid131865 (b) ENSO-}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 related monthly-to-interannual time-scal}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid12483024\charrsid131865 e fluctuations}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 contribute the domina}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid8920940 nt portion of non-anthropogenic}{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 sea level variability at seasonal-interannual time scales. The ENSO compon
ent is also amenable to a simple linear model. Assuming that the same mechanisms will operate in the future as during the historical period, the linear relationship between observed monthly Nino 3.4 SST anomalies and the }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12483024\charrsid131865 San Francisco}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 station\rquote s sea level i
s used as the ENSO component of the model. ENSO variability was extracted from the 2000\endash 2100 climate model projection}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid8920940 s using the difference between }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 NINO 3.4 SST and its linear trend over 2000\endash 2100 as a conservative estimate of the ENSO index. The effects o
f ENSO are represented by area average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (120\u186\'bcW\endash 170\u186\'bcW, 5\u186\'bcS\endash 5\u186\'bc
N) extracted from the GCMs and scaled to match the standard deviation of the observed Nino 3.4 series for 1961\endash 1990.
\par (c) Astronomical tides predicted, at hourly resolution, over }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12483024\charrsid131865 the }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
21st century using harmonic coefficients based upon tidal constituents derived from th}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12483024\charrsid131865 e historical}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
San Francisco tide gage}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12483024\charrsid131865 data}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 ADDIN EN.CITE Zetler1985209[9]20920917
Z
etler, B. D.Flick, R. E.Zetler, Bd
Univ Calif San Diego,Scripps Inst Oceanog,Calif Dept Boating & Waterways,La Jolla,Ca 92093
Univ Calif San Diego,Scripps Inst Oceanog,Calif Dept
Boating & Waterways,La Jolla,Ca 92093Predicted Extreme High Tides for Mixed-Tide RegimesJournal of Physical OceanographyJ Phys Oceanogr
Journal of Physical OceanographyJ Phys OceanogrJournal of Physical OceanographyJ Phys Oceanogr357-3591
5
319850022-3670ISI:A1985AHT6300012<Go to ISI>://A1985AHT6300012English}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679
HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_9" \\o "Zetler, 1985 #209" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000008000000090000005f0045004e005200450046005f0039000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 9}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 .
\par (d) Sea level rise was }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12483024\charrsid131865 estimated}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 using the Vermeer and Rahmstorf }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 ADDIN EN.CITE Vermeer2009144[10]14414417Vermeer, M.Rahmstor
f
, S.From the Cover: Global sea level linked to global temperatureProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesProceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences21527-215321065120090027-8424
1091-649010.1073/pnas.0907765106}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_10" \\o "Vermeer, 2009 #144" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00310030000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 10}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 semi-empirical sea level scheme, using global average air temperature from the GCM simulations.
\par }\pard\plain \ltrpar\ql \li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid8920940 \rtlch\fcs1 \af423\afs24\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0
\fs24\lang1033\langfe1081\loch\af423\hich\af0\dbch\af423\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1081 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 With these components, simulated sea level at San Fran
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 cisco}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid12483024\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 was constructed}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
by superimposing the sea level rise onto predicted tides, weather-related sea level anomalies, and ENSO-related sea level fluctuations. The result of the model runs was a series of hourly sea level from 1950 through 2100}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\loch\af0\insrsid10516741\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 (from which t\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 he 1970-2099 period used in this study was extracted)}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid16527125\charrsid131865
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 for}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 each of the climate }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid16527125\charrsid131865
\hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 scenarios}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 . }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid16527125\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
Historical observations for 1970-1999 were obtained for the Golden Gate tide gage from NOAA (}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid16527125\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
HYPERLINK "http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid16527125\charrsid131865 {\*\datafield
00d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000003000000e0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b5c00000068007400740070003a002f002f007400690064006500730061006e006400630075007200720065006e00740073002e006e006f00610061002e0067006f0076002f000000795881f43b1d7f48af2c825dc485
276300000000a5ab000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \cs36\ul\cf2\loch\af0\insrsid16527125\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \loch\af0\insrsid16527125\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0 ).}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\loch\af0\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \hich\af0\dbch\af423\loch\f0
\par }\pard\plain \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 \rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs22\alang1033 \ltrch\fcs0
\f35\fs22\lang1033\langfe1025\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1025 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 Hydrology and Management
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
A combination of models was used to simulate the watershed's hydrologic behavior for each scenario. Downscaled meteorological fields}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1507830\charrsid131865 (see \u8220\'d2Meteorology\u8221\'d3 above)}{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 were used to drive the }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12127051\charrsid131865 VIC watershed model }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid8678351 ADDIN EN.CITE Liang1994512[11,12]51251217Liang, X.Lettenmaier, D. P.Wood, E. F.Burges, S. J.A simple hydrologically based model of land surf
ace water and energy fluxes for general circulation modelsJ. Geophys Res.J. Geophys Res.14415\endash
14428991994Cherkauer200350350350317Cherkauer, K. A.Bowling, L. C.Lettenmaier, D. P.Variable infiltration capacity cold land process model updates
Global Plan. ChangeGlobal Plan. Change151\endash
159382003}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_11" \\o "Liang, 1994 #512" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00310031000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 11}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 ,}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_12" \\o "Cherkauer, 2003 #503" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00310032000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 12}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid8920940 , }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12127051\charrsid131865
configured for the Sacramento River and San Joaquin River watersheds using the same parameters applied in several prior studies of the area (}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid8678351 ADDIN EN.CITE }
{\field{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid8678351 ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid8678351 {\*\datafield
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3e3c796561723e323031303c2f796561723e3c2f64617465733e3c75726c733e3c2f75726c733e3c2f7265636f72643e3c2f436974653e3c2f456e644e6f74653e}}}{\fldrslt }}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj }{\fldrslt {
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_1" \\
o "Cayan, 2008 #250" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000008000000090000005f0045004e005200450046005f0031000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 1}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 ,}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_13" \\o "Barnett, 2008 #337" }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00310033000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 13}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 ,}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_14" \\o "Maurer, 2010 #513" }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00310034000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 14}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9001725 . }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 This resulted in daily estimates of snowpack and unimpaired reservoir inflows for each scenario. }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12127051\charrsid131865
A simulation was also performed for the baseline period, driven using historical meteorology (}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid8678351
ADDIN EN.CITE Maurer2002514[8]51451417Maurer, E. P.Wood,
A
. W.Adam, J. C.Lettenmaier, D. P.Nijssen, B.A long-term hydrologically-based data set of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States<
/title>J. Clim.J. Clim.3237\endash 3251.152002}}{\fldrslt {
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_8" \\
o "Maurer, 2002 #514" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000008000000090000005f0045004e005200450046005f0038000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 8}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid3699326 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12127051\charrsid131865 to produce the \u8220\'d2
observation-based\u8221\'d3 historical hydrological indicators.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid16540224
Estimates of unimpaired flow at major reservoirs throughout the watershed were obtained from the California-Nevada River Forecast Center (}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid16540224 HYPERLINK "h
ttp://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid16540224\charrsid9635628 {\*\datafield
00d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000003000000e0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b4e00000068007400740070003a002f002f007700770077002e0063006e007200660063002e006e006f00610061002e0067006f0076002f000000795881f43b1d7f48af2c825dc485276300000000a5ab000000}}
}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \cs36\f0\fs24\ul\cf2\insrsid16540224\charrsid9635628 www.cnrfc.noaa.gov}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid16540224 ) and California Data Exchange }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid14031453 Center }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15283904 (CDEC, }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid16540224 HYPERLINK "http://cdec.water.ca.gov" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid16540224\charrsid9635628 {\*\datafield
00d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000003000000e0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b4c00000068007400740070003a002f002f0063006400650063002e00770061007400650072002e00630061002e0067006f0076002f000000795881f43b1d7f48af2c825dc485276300000000a5ab000000}}
}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \cs36\f0\fs24\ul\cf2\insrsid16540224\charrsid9635628 cdec.water.ca.gov}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid16540224 ). Data covering the period 1970-1986 were available, allowing watershed total unimpaired runoff and snowmelt fraction of annual runoff to be calcula}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid14252543
ted for this period, providing }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid16540224 the observation-based historical time series for those indicators.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12127051
\par }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid858983 The simulations and analyses described in this section were also carried out using a different hydrological model, }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid858983\charrsid8728585
the Bay-Delta Watershed Model}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid858983 (BDWM)}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid858983\charrsid8728585
, a distributed soil-moisture accounting model of unimpaired hydrology throughout the watershed }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9001725
ADDIN EN.CITE Knowles2000432[15,16]43243232Knowles, N.Modeling the Hydroclimate of the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary and WatershedKnowles dissertationDoctoral Dissertation2000La Jolla, CAScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California - San DiegoPh. DKnowles200452952952917Knowles, NCayan, DElevational dependence of projected hydrologic changes in the San Francisco Estuary and WatershedClimatic ChangeClimatic Change319-336622004}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid9001725 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_15" \\o "Knowles, 2000 #432" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00310035000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 15}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid9001725 ,}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_16" \\o "Knowles, 2004 #529" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00310036000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 16}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid9001725 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid858983\charrsid8728585 .}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid858983 The results with BDWM were very similar to t
hose produced with VIC, and the conclusions of the overall study }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid2441448 appear to be}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid858983 robust with respect to hydrologic model choice.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid858983\charrsid16540224
\par }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 These inflows were used to drive a model of freshwater management operations\emdash the California Department of Water Resources' CALSIM II model }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9001725
ADDIN EN.CITE Draper2004160[17]16016017Draper, Andrew J.Munevar, ArminArora, Sushil K.Reyes, ErikParker, Nancy L.Chung, Fran
c
is I.Peterson, Lloyd E.CalSim: Generalized Model for Reservoir System AnalysisJournal of Water Resources Planning and ManagementJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management480-4891306ReservoirsRiver basinsCaliforniaState governmentSimulation modelsWater resources management2004ASCEhttp://link.aip.org/link/?QWR/130/480/110.1061/(asce)0733-9496(2004)130:6(480)}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid9001725 [}
{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_17" \\o "Draper, 2004 #160" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00310037000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 17}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid9001725 ]}
}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 . CALSIM is a management optimization model in which, given inputs
of reservoir inflows, a set of freshwater management decisions is computationally determined on a monthly time step that optimally satisfy operational goals and constraints. The results are estimates of managed freshwater flows at points throughout the w
atershed. CALSIM has been applied in other climate-change studies }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12670703 ADDIN EN.CITE }{\field{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12670703
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\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_18" \\o "Brekke, 2004 #13" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
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\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_19" \\o "Dracup, 2005 #522" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
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\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_20" \\o "Vicuna, 2007 #516" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
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In this study, a new configuration of CALSIM II was used to produce projections for the coming century (2010-2099), and an existing configuration (configured for runs only up to 1994) was used to produce historical estimates (1970-1994).
\par }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 A shortcoming of CALSIM is its treatment of groundwater withdrawals, which are allowed in the model to occur at unsustainable levels if ot
her supplies of freshwater are insufficient to meet demands. This must be considered when interpreting results. }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid13841434\charrsid131865
In particular, simulated unsustainable withdrawal levels are indicative of an inability to meet freshwater demands through other means. In this
situation, net depletion of aquifers to meet demand is one possible outcome; measures to reduce demand are another.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid4132886 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
Another shortcoming is that CALSIM produces only monthly averaged results. Resulting streamflows at key locations were disaggregated to dail
y flows by selecting from historical daily flow records at those locations. For each projected future month, an optimally matching historical month was selected, using a combined RMS-error and correlation-coefficient metric to compare projected and simula
ted historical daily}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid14252543 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
unimpaired flows at upstream sites above the major reservoirs. The corresponding daily flows from the matching historical months at the downstream locations were then scaled to match the CALSIM-simulated monthly averages at those locati
ons. Such approximations are necessary until an operations model with a daily time step is available. Finally, }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10830657\charrsid131865 historical and projected }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 stream temperatures were simulated throughout the watershed using the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's CALSIM-driven stream-temperature model. This model has also been applied in other climate-change studies (e.g.,}{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243
ADDIN EN.CITE Anderson2008519[21]51951917Anderson, J.Chung, F. I.Anderson, M.Brekke, L.Easton, D.Ejeta, M.Peterson, R.Snyder, R.Progress on incorporating climate change into management of California\rquote
s water resourcesClimatic ChangeClimatic Change91\endash
10887, suppl. 12008}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_21" \\o "Anderson, 2008 #519" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679
{\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00320031000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 21}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15478690\charrsid131865 )}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 .
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1600553\charrsid131865
In attempting to represent the behavior of a complex freshwater management network like California\rquote s in the future, several difficulties are encountered. Projecting freshwater demands is difficu
lt, and for CALSIM, demand scenarios were only available for California\rquote
s level of development (LOD) in 2000 and that projected for 2020. Thus, historical CALSIM runs use the 2000 LOD, and projections use the 2020 LOD. This necessarily introduces error}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid598291\charrsid131865
s}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1600553\charrsid131865 into the results, with a key caveat that projections }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid598291\charrsid131865 well past 2020}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1600553\charrsid131865 almost certainly underestimate freshwater demands}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid598291\charrsid131865 , barring major changes in California water-use patterns}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1600553\charrsid131865 . Another important difficulty lies in the fact that freshwater management infrastructure is not static. Representing the numerous }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid598291\charrsid131865 historical infrastructure changes}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12138023\charrsid131865 is very difficult,}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1600553\charrsid131865
and predicting }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid6372219\charrsid131865 future changes}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12138023\charrsid131865 is}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid1600553\charrsid131865 impossible. Therefore, the CALSIM runs used in this study assume present-day management infrastructure and g}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9971610\charrsid131865 oals.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1600553\charrsid131865 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9971610\charrsid131865 The result
s may be interpreted as potential changes which future adjustments to management infrastructure and goals may be designed to help mitigate.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1600553\charrsid131865
\par }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 Estuarine Salinity
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
To project changes in estuarine salinity due to climate change, two models were used. The Uncles
-Peterson estuarine model is a 2-dimensional, advective-diffusive, intertidal box model of the San Francisco Estuary with a time step of one day. This model has been applied in several previous studies of the estuary and has been shown to accurately repro
duce salinities at weekly to interannual time scales over a wide range of flow regimes }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243
ADDIN EN.CITE Peterson1995349[23,24]34934917Peterson, D.Cayan, D.Dileo, J.Noble,
M
.Dettinger, M.The role of climate in estuarine variabilityAmerican ScientistAmerican Scientist58-678311995Jan-Feb0003-0996ISI:A1995QL57200018<Go to ISI>://
A
1995QL57200018Knowles199821821821817Knowles, N.Cayan, D.Peterson, D. H.Uncles, R. J.Simulated Effects of Delta O
u
flow on the Bay: 1998 Compared to Other Years.Interagency Ecological Program NewsletterInteragency Ecological Program Newsletter29-31.111998}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_23" \\o "Peterson, 1995 #349" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00320033000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 23}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ,}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_24" \\o "Knowles, 1998 #218" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00320034000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 24}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 . Importantly, the U-P model is very economical computationally, enabling }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 the 90}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 -year runs needed to evaluate estuarine variability under the climate-change scenarios}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 The U-P model was driven using daily estuarine inflows derived from CALSIM outputs described above, producing daily salinities along the estua
ry's axis for both the historical baseline period and for each future scenario. A simulation was also performed for the baseline period using observed inflows (}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 HYPERLINK "http://www.water.ca.gov/dayflow/" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 {\*\datafield
00d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000003000000e0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b5a00000068007400740070003a002f002f007700770077002e00770061007400650072002e00630061002e0067006f0076002f0064006100790066006c006f0077002f000000795881f43b1d7f48af2c825dc4852763
00000000a5ab000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \cs36\f0\fs24\ul\cf2\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 www.water.ca.gov/dayflow}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 ) for use in deriving \u8220\'d2observation-based\u8221\'d3 historical salinity values.
\par }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 While the U-P simulations provide a representation of the influence of changing hydrology on est}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865
uarine salinities over each}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 scenario, the U-P model does not capture the effects of sea level rise on salinity. Fo}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid15862337\charrsid131865 r this, a separate}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 model, Delft3D }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243
ADDIN EN.CITE Lesser2004161[25]16116117Lesser, G. R.Roelvink, J. A.van Kester, J. A. T. M.Stelling, G. S.Development and validation of a three-dimensional morphological modelCoastal EngineeringCoastal Engineering883-915<
v
olume>518-9MorphologicalModelDELFT3DValidationHydrodynamicSediment transportCoastal20040378-3839http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCX-4D5KXVD-1/2/9e79dfd5856ef474eee184a4a4441e26DOI: 10.1016/j.coasta
leng.2004.07.014}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_25" \\o "Lesser, 2004 #161" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00320035000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 25}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
, was used to parameterize salinity changes due to sea level rise based on a) freshwater inflow rate and b) amount of sea level rise. The Delft3D model of San Francisco Bay }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE Elias213[26]213
21317Elias, E.Van der Wegen, M.Roelvink, J. A.Calibration and validation of
a 3D process-based model for San Francisco Bay and Delta.in preparationin preparation}}{\fldrslt {
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_26" \\
o "Elias, #213" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00320036000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 26}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
is a 3D process-based model covering an area from Point Reyes at sea to the landward boundary of tidal influence near Sacramento on a curvilinear grid with a spatial resolution ranging from 100 to 1000 m. Land with lo
w elevation is included in the model so that sea level rise can result in flooding of currently dry land.
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sa200\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5912958\charrsid131865 T}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 he Delft3D model is too computationally demanding to evaluate full }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 90}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 -year scenarios, }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5912958\charrsid131865 but }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
it is sophisticated enough to capture salinity changes a
ssociated with sea level rise, and is thus complementary to the U-P model. A set of 2-month runs was performed using Delft3D in which a different combination of freshwater inflow rate and sea-level-rise amount characterized each run. }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5912958\charrsid131865 The first month of each run was discarded to allow for model spi}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid2775964\charrsid131865 n-up (}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid5912958\charrsid131865 salinit}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid2775964\charrsid131865 y changes}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5912958\charrsid131865 leveled off within a month). }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11166728\charrsid131865 For each run, time-}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5912958\charrsid131865 averaged }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11166728\charrsid131865
salinity values were calculated}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5912958\charrsid131865 for points along the estuary\rquote s axis corresponding to the U-P model segments}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid11166728\charrsid131865 . Changes in salinity due to sea level rise were then calculated by subtracting salinities corresponding to no sea level rise}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid608103\charrsid131865
and a given inflow rate}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11166728\charrsid131865 f}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid608103\charrsid131865 rom salinities corresponding to }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid11166728\charrsid131865 other values of sea level rise }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid608103\charrsid131865 and the same inflow rate}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11166728\charrsid131865 .}{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid608103\charrsid131865 Calculating these changes separately for each inflow rate }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid14304094\charrsid131865 allowed}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid608103\charrsid131865 us to isolate the changes due to sea level rise while still including the effects of inflow rate on those changes.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10893181\charrsid131865 The}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10893181\charrsid131865 pattern}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid4413475\charrsid131865 in plots of}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 salinity change}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid4413475\charrsid131865 s}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid608103\charrsid131865 at all points}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid4413475\charrsid131865 versus the corresponding}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10893181\charrsid131865
baseline salinities}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 was found to be }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10893181\charrsid131865 fairly consistent}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid608103\charrsid131865 across different values of sea level rise and inflow rate}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10893181\charrsid131865 , varying }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid7235577\charrsid131865 mainly}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10893181\charrsid131865 in magnitude.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid7235577\charrsid131865 T}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10893181\charrsid131865 he magnitude of the change was affected by both amount of sea level}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid608103\charrsid131865 rise}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10893181\charrsid131865 and freshwater inflow. Therefore, }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
bivariate regressions of salinity change on inflow and sea-level-rise amount were performed for binned values of baseline salinity}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10893181\charrsid131865 (a different set of re}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid7235577\charrsid131865 gression coefficients for each}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10893181\charrsid131865 bin)}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
. The resulting }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid7235577\charrsid131865 coefficients}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 were then used to calculate }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid13837116\charrsid131865 sea-level-rise-driven }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 salinity increases}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid7235577\charrsid131865 at points alon
g the estuary\rquote s axis}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid13837116\charrsid131865 ,}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 using daily inflows}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid10893181\charrsid131865 (see \u8220\'d2Hydrology and Management\u8221\'d3 above)}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid7235577\charrsid131865 and}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
sea-level-rise amounts}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1507830\charrsid131865 (see \u8220\'d2Sea Level\u8221\'d3 above)}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid7235577\charrsid131865 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 for both the historical and projected periods }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid7235577\charrsid131865 as the regressors}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
, and }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid7235577\charrsid131865 using }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 the U-P-simulated salinities}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid7235577\charrsid131865 to determine which salinity bin\rquote s reg}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid4413475\charrsid131865 ression coefficients to use}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 . The changes were added to the }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11682790\charrsid131865 corresponding }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
U-P salinities, and }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid4413475\charrsid131865 the final results represent our }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
estimate of salinity changes throughout the estuary due to the combination of upstream hydrologic changes and sea level rise.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\cf6\insrsid14695100\charrsid131865
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 Suspended Sediment
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid15475231 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865
To evaluate possible suspended sediment changes under the climate-change scenarios, a rating curve of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) for the Sacramento River at Rio Vista versus river discharge was developed. This loc
ation was chosen because it is colocated with an available future scenario variable, streamflow (see \u8220\'d2Hydrology and Management\u8221\'d3 above),}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid2450563\charrsid131865 and}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 SSC data are available every 15 minutes from 1998-2002 }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243
ADDIN EN.CITE Wright2
005208[27]20820817<
a
uthors>Wright, Scott A.Schoellhamer, David H.Estimating sediment budgets at the interface between rivers and estuaries with application to the Sacramento–San Joaquin River
DeltaWater Resour. Res.Water Resour. Res.W09428419deltaestuaryoptical backscatterSacramento RiverSan Joaquin Riversediment budget1848 Hydrology: Monitoring networks4863 Oceanography: Biological and Chemical:
S
edimentation1895 Hydrology: Instruments and techniques: monitoring4558 Oceanography: Physical: Sediment transport1834 Hydrology: Human impacts2005AGU0043-1397http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004WR00375310.1029/2004wr003753}}{\fldrslt {
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_27" \\
o "Wright, 2005 #208" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00320037000000}}}{\fldrslt {
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 27}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid2450563\charrsid131865 .}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15475231 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 USGS 15-minute suspended-sediment time series data for the Sacramento River at Rio Vista station covering years 1998-2002 }
{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE Wright2005208[27]20820817Wright, Scott A.Schoellhamer, David H.Estimating sediment budgets at the interface between rivers and estuaries with application to the Sacramento–San Joaquin River DeltaWater
Resour. Res.Water Resour. Res.W09428419deltaestuaryoptical backscatter
k
eyword>Sacramento RiverSan Joaquin Riversediment budget1848 Hydrology: Monitoring networks4863 Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Sedimentation1895
Hydrology: Instruments and techniques: monitoring4558 Oceanography: Physical: Sediment transport1834 Hydrology: Human impacts2005AGU0043-13
97http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004WR00375310.1029/2004wr003753}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_27" \\o "Wright, 2005 #208" }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00320037000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 27}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865
were converted to daily mean SSC and compared with the sum of daily discharge from t}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15475231 he Sacramento River at Freeport}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865
(USGS station 11455420) and from the Yolo Bypass near Woodland (USGS station 11447650).}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15475231 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 A suspended-}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9205089\charrsid131865 sediment rating curve (}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid6651692 Fig.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 S1}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 ) was developed using linear regression based on group-averaged data }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243
ADDIN EN.CITE Glysson1987550[28]55055046Glysson, D.GSediment-transport curves. U.S. Geological Survey Ope
n File Report, 87-2181987}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_28" \\o "Glysson, 1987 #550" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679
{\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00320038000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 28}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid8678351 .}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 With this approach, an r}{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\super\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 2}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 value of 0.83 was obtained using a corresponding prediction
equation, an improvement over simple least-squares and multiregression methods. The independent variable (daily discharge) was regressed against the dependent variable (daily SSC) using 15 groups determined using a log transformation on the ranked dischar
ge data. For each discharge group, median, upper quartile (75th percentile), and lower quartile (25th percentile) values were calculated. Linear regression was used to determine how these value}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid9205089\charrsid131865 s vary with discharge (}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid6651692 Fig.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 S1}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 ). Results using daily-averaged }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid7096910\charrsid131865 15-minute }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 SSC }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid7096910\charrsid131865 data }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 collected during 1998-2002 were more robust }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid7096910\charrsid131865 (n=689) }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 than for monthly grab sample }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675\charrsid131865
SSC data collected from 1975-1995}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 for}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675\charrsid131865 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675\charrsid10233937
the}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 Interagency Ecological Program's Environmental Monitoring Program (IEP EMP; }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675\charrsid131865 n=364).}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 For each scenario, calculate
d daily discharges were used to calculate the daily median and upper and lower quartiles of SSC using the}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9205089\charrsid131865 regression equations given on }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid6651692 Fig.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 S1}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865
. One-half of the SSC values would be within the estimated interquartile range. In the paper, only }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid6095050\charrsid131865 the annual averages of daily }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 median}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid6095050\charrsid131865 SSC were}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12200339\charrsid131865 used for simplicity.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid15475231 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865
The sediment delivery from the Sacramento River watershed to the San Francisco Bay has decreased by about one-half between 1957 and 2001 }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243
ADDIN EN.CITE Wright2004<
/Year>207[29]20720717Wright, Scott A.Schoellhamer, David H.Trends in the Sediment Yield of the Sacramento River, California, 1957 - 2001San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Sc
i
enceSan Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science2220041546-2366http://www.escho
larship.org/uc/item/891144f4}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_29" \\o "Wright, 2004 #207" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00320039000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 29}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865
. As these changes in sediment delivery have occurred, the turbidity and associated SSC within the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta during the last four decades have also decreased}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid9205089\charrsid131865 by approximately 40% (}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid6651692 Fig.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 S2}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 ).}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15475231 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 Because of the historic}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 al}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 decreasing trend }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1203810\charrsid131865 in sediment supply,}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 two sediment-supply scen}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9205089\charrsid131865 arios into the future (}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid6651692 Fig.}{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 S3}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 )}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1203810\charrsid131865 were developed}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 . The constant sediment supply scenario was develope}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9205089\charrsid131865 d assuming the rating curve in }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid6651692 Fig.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 S1}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865 applies in the future. }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid402473\charrsid131865 The decreasing sediment supply scenario was developed assumi}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15475231 ng that SSC decreases at 1.6% yr}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\super\insrsid15475231\charrsid15475231 -1}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid402473\charrsid131865 , the Delta-wide average rate of SSC decrease from 1975-2008 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid3343675\charrsid131865 (data from }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675\charrsid10233937 the}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 IEP EMP, available at }{\field\flddirty{\*\fldinst {
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 HYPERLINK "http://www.water.ca.gov/bdma"}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 {\*\datafield
00d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000003000000e0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b3a00000068007400740070003a002f002f007700770077002e00770061007400650072002e00630061002e0067006f0076002f00620064006d006100000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \cs36\f0\fs24\ul\cf2\insrsid3343675\charrsid7818968 www.water.ca.gov/bdma}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 ;}{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675\charrsid131865 Seasonal Kendall test }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 applied }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243
ADDIN EN.CITE Kendall1975217[30,31]2172176Kendall, M.G.Ra
n
k Correlation Methods1975Oxford Univ. Press, New YorkHelsel19922162162166Helsel, D.R.Hirsch, R.M.S
tatistical methods in water resources.1992Elsevier, Amsterdam}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_30" \\o "Kendall, 1975 #217" }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00330030000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 30}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ,}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_31" \\o "Helsel, 1992 #216" }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00330031000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 31}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 )}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid3343675\charrsid131865 . }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9205089\charrsid131865 In }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid6651692 Fig.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 S3}{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid402473\charrsid131865 , upper and lower quartiles are plotted to indicate the range in which one-half of the SSC would occur. }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid15273141\charrsid131865
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865
The rating curve was applied to produce a hindcast of SSC, using observed discharges (}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\ul\cf2\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 HYPERLINK "http://www.water.ca.gov/dayflow" }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\ul\cf2\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 {\*\datafield
00d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000170000002000000068007400740070003a002f002f007700770077002e00770061007400650072002e00630061002e0067006f0076002f0064006100790066006c006f0077000000e0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b5800000068007400740070003a002f002f00
7700770077002e00770061007400650072002e00630061002e0067006f0076002f0064006100790066006c006f0077000000795881f43b1d7f48af2c825dc485276300000000a5ab000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \cs36\f0\fs24\ul\cf2\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865
www.water.ca.gov/dayflow}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865
) and the historical trend in sediment delivery. This is presented in }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid6651692 Fig.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 2 as the \u8220\'d2observation-based\u8221
\'d3 time series of SSC during the baseline period, since relatively little observed SSC data exist for that period. The historical \u8220\'d2model-based\u8221\'d3
indicator was produced by applying the rating curve to the CALSIM-based daily discharge estimates (see \u8220\'d2Hydrology and Management\u8221\'d3 above) and using the historical trend in sediment delivery.
\par }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid13910972\charrsid131865
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 Delta Water}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f0\fs24\insrsid2886836\charrsid131865 Temperature}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865
Water temperature data were obtained }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675\charrsid131865 from the }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 IEP EMP}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865 for the Sacramento River at Rio Vista, where water temperatures were collected from May 1983 through September 2002}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865
(1984-1999 annual averages of these data constitute the observation-based historical indicator)}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865
. Historical air temperature and insolation data were acquired from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS, }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865
HYPERLINK "http://www.cimis.water.ca.gov" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865 {\*\datafield
00d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000003000000e0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b5600000068007400740070003a002f002f007700770077002e00630069006d00690073002e00770061007400650072002e00630061002e0067006f0076002f000000795881f43b1d7f48af2c825dc485276300000000
a5ab000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \cs36\f0\fs24\ul\cf2\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865 www.cimis.water.ca.gov}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865 ) at seven locations in the Delta; air te
mperature data for six more locations were obtained from the IEP. Air temperature and insolation data were averaged spatially, as within-Delta variation of these quantities was small. Daily averages were calculated for all data. To produce water-temperatu
re hindcasts, a longer record of daily air temperatures was required. Data for 1970-2000 were acquired from the California Climate Data Archive (}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865
HYPERLINK "http://www.calclim.dri.edu/data.html" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865 {\*\datafield
00d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000003000000e0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b6200000068007400740070003a002f002f007700770077002e00630061006c0063006c0069006d002e006400720069002e006500640075002f0064006100740061002e00680074006d006c000000795881f43b1d7f48
af2c825dc485276300000000a5ab000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \cs36\f0\fs24\ul\cf2\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865 www.calclim.dri.edu/data.html}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865 ) for five locations around t
he Delta. As with the CIMIS data, these data were spatially averaged over the Delta.
\par Using the historical data, a simple regression was applied to relate the daily-averaged water temperature (T) to the air temperature (T}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\sub\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865 a}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865 ) and insolation (R) from the same day and water temperature from the preceding day }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid2828679 ADDIN E
N.CITE Wagner2011500[32]50050017Wagner, R.Stacey, M. T.Brown, L.Dettinger, M.Statistical models of temperature in the Sa
c
ramento-San Joaquin Delta under climate-change scenarios and ecological implicationsEstuaries and CoastsEstuaries and CoastsEstuar Coast
544-556343201110.1007/s12237-010-9369-z}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_32" \\o "Wagner, 2011 #500" }{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00330032000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 32}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid2828679 :}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865
\par
\par \tab T(n)=aT}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\sub\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865 a}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865 (n)+bT(n-1)+cR(n)+d\tab \tab \tab \tab \tab (1)
\par
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865
where n is the day on which the temperature is being calculated, and a, b, c and d are coefficients that are determined during the calibration period. The insolation was defined as the average insolation for each Julian day of the year.
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865
To verify the model, regression coefficients were calculated for equation (1) using the first half of the available historical dataset (the calibration period), then used to force the
model during the entire period of coverage for each site (both calibration and verification periods). The daily average model performed well when compared to measured water temperatures; the r}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\super\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865 2}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865 value was 0.96}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid4221768 4 for the verification period.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865
\par To project wate
r temperatures for the coming century, the model was calibrated with the entire historical dataset and applied the resulting regression equation to the downscaled climate data, using the mean annual insolation cycle. Similarly, to hindcast water temperat
ures for 1970-}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 1999}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865
, the model was calibrated with the entire historical dataset and forced with the long-term historical air temperatures and the mean annual insolation cycle}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 , providing the \u8220
\'d2model-based\u8221\'d3 historical indicator for Delta water temperature}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865 .}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10771109
\par }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid14169952 A}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10771109 nn
ual average projected temperatures were calculated from the daily projections. These were calculated as a direct average over each calendar year. Although atmospheric forcing alone was enough to produce high model-data correlations on the }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid14169952 daily}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10771109 timescale, in the annual average, the modeled and observed values diverge during the late 1990s, as is evident in }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid6651692 Fig.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10771109 2. These discrepancies occur d}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid14169952 uring years when the flows were}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10771109 high, and comparisons of the error in the projections (annual average of model projections minus the annual average of the observed temperatures) with river flow (}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid6651692 Fig.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10771109 S}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3699326 4}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid14169952 ) shows that flow }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid14811138 explains}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10771109
the discrepancies. More detailed examination of the intra-annual variation during these high flow years (not shown) indicates that in spring/summ
er seasons with high flows, the warming of the Delta is delayed and, as a result, the summer peak temperature period is shortened, leading to a reduced annual average relative to a prediction based purely on atmospheric forcing. The mechanism driving this
flow effect requires further examination, but is most likely due to high flows pushing the high-temperature Delta waters further down-estuary (see}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid597872 }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE Monismith2009530[3
3]53053017Monismith, S.G. Hench, J.L.Fong, D.A.Nidzieko, N.J.Fleenor W.E.Doyle, L.P.Schladow, S.G.Thermal variability in a tidal river<
s
econdary-title>Estuaries and CoastsEstuaries and CoastsEstuar Coast100-11032(1)2009}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_33" \\o "Monismith, 2009 #530" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00330033000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 33}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10771109 ).
\par The fact that the flow effects develop primarily at high flows mitigates the impact of this error on our climate-based projections, since the projections for unimpaired r
unoff are either flat (scenario B1) or decline (scenario A2), so the cooling effects of high flows would not be evident over the projection}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid14169952 s}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid10771109 .}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12601906\charrsid131865
\par }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10167811\charrsid131865
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 Biological Indicators
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 Delta smelt (}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \i\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid14811138 Hypomesus transpacificus}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 ) is endemic to the San Francisco Estuary }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE }{\field{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 {\*\datafield
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75726c733e3c2f7265636f72643e3c2f436974653e3c2f456e644e6f74653e00}}}{\fldrslt }}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj }{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_34" \\o "Moyle, 2002 #150" }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00330034000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 34}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ,}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_35" \\o "Bennett, 2005 #158" }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00330035000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 35}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
and is listed as endangered by the state of California and a change in status from threatened to endangered has b
een deemed warranted under the federal endangered species act. Thus, maintaining the population of delta smelt has become a key goal in managing the estuary}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5908537\charrsid131865 }
{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE Sommer2007200[36]20020017Sommer, Ted<
a
uthor>Armor, ChuckBaxter, RandallBreuer, RichardBrown, LarryChotkowski, MikeCulberson, SteveFeyrer, FredrickGingras, MartyHerbold, BruceKimmerer, WimMueller-Solger, AnkeNobriga, MattSouza, KellyThe Collapse of Pelagic Fishes in the Upper San Francisco Estuar
y
: El Colapso de los Peces Pelagicos en La Cabecera Del Estuario San FranciscoFisheriesFisheries270-277326
2007http://afsjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1577/1548-8446%282007%2932%5B270%3ATCOPFI%5D2.0.CO%3B2doi:10.1577/1548-8446(2007)32[270:TCOPFI]2.0.CO;2}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_36" \\o "Sommer, 2007 #200" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00330036000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 36}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 . To assess the effects of climate change on delta smelt}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid1507830\charrsid131865 ,}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 the frequency of mean daily water temperatures above 25}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f95\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \u8304\'5f}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 C based on modeled water temperatures at Rio Vista}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid1203810\charrsid131865 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid8065286\charrsid131865 (see \u8220\'d2Delta Water Temperature\u8221\'d3 above) }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1269878\charrsid131865
determined for Rio Vista. Rio Vista is within one tidal excursion of a large portion of the remaining delta smelt habitat in the tidal portion of the Sacramento River. }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 Bennett }
{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE Bennett2005158[35]15815817Bennett, William A.Critical assessment of the delta smelt population in the San Francisco Estuary, CaliforniaSan Francisco Estuary a
n
d Watershed ScienceSan Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science3220051546-2366h
ttp://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/0725n5vk}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_35" \\o "Bennett, 2005 #158" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00330035000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 35}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 indicated that temperatures above 25}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \fs24\loch\af0\hich\af95\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \loch\af0\dbch\af0\hich\f95 \u8304\'5f}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
C were likely lethal to delta smelt. Swanson et al. }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN
EN.CITE Swanson2000202[37]20220217Swanson, C.Reid, T.Young, P. S.Cech Jr, J. J.Comparative environmental tolerances of t
h
reatened delta smelt ( <i>Hypomesus transpacificus</i> ) and introduced wakasagi ( <i>H. nipponensis</i> ) in an altered California estuaryOecologia
Oecologia384-3901233Biomedical and Life Sciences2000Springer Berlin / Heidelb
erg0029-8549http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00442005102510.1007/s004420051025}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_37" \\
o "Swanson, 2000 #202" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00330037000000}}}{\fldrslt {
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 37}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
obtained a laboratory-derived acute lethal limit of 25}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \fs24\loch\af0\hich\af95\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \loch\af0\dbch\af0\hich\f95 \u8304\'5f}{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 C (for fish acclimated to 17}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\fs24\loch\af0\hich\af95\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \loch\af0\dbch\af0\hich\f95 \u8304\'5f}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 C, }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE Swanson2000202[37]20220217Swanson, C.Reid, T.Young, P. S.Cech Jr, J. J.
Comparative environmental tolerances of threatened delta smelt ( <i>Hypomesus transpacificus</i> ) and introduced wakasagi ( <i>H. nipponensis</i> ) in an altered California estuaryOecologiaOecologia384-3901233Biomedical and Life Sciences2000
d
ates>Springer Berlin / Heidelberg0029-8549http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00442005102510.1007/s004420051025}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679
HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_37" \\o "Swanson, 2000 #202" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00330037000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 37}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid14811138 )}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 . Nobriga et al. }
{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE Nobriga2008199[38]19919917Nobriga, Matthew L.Sommer, Ted R.Feyrer, FrederickFleming, KevinLong-Term Trends in Summertime Habitat Suitability for Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus)San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science
<
/titles>San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science6120081546-2366http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5xd
3q8tx}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_38" \\o "Nobriga, 2008 #199" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00330038000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 38}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 found that catch of delta smelt began decreasing at temperatures above 20}{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \u176\'a1 C and became almost zero at 25}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid3343675 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 \u176\'a1C suggesting avoidance of stressful conditions or high mortality. Finally, recent observations of control groups of delta smelt held as part of mark-recapture}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid12408934\charrsid131865 studies (Castillo et al., }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid14041855\charrsid131865 2010}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 ) }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1507830\charrsid131865 indicated that exposure of well }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 fed, uns}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1507830\charrsid131865
tressed hatchery-}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 reared delta smelt to ambient water temperatures that exceeded 25\u176\'a1
C for several days resulted in a rapid decline in survival. This mortality was not reversed when ambient water temperature declined below 25\u176\'a1C, suggesting major and irreversible physiological impairment. Thus, a mean daily temperature of 25\u176
\'a1C, with temperatures above 25\u176\'a1C for much of the day, seems a reasonable threshold for expecting high mortality of fish in the wild.
\par Winter-run Chinook salmon (}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \i\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid14811138 Oncorhynchus tshawytscha}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
) is endemic to the Sacramento River system of California and is listed as endangered under both state and federal endangered species legislation }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243
ADDIN EN.CITE Moyle2002150[34]1501506Moyle, Peter B.Inland fishes of Californiaxv, 502 p.Rev. and expanded.Freshwater fishes California.2002BerkeleyUniversity of California Press0520227549 (cloth alk. paper)12376457Jefferson or Adams Building Reading Rooms QL628.C2; M68 2002
Jefferson or Adams Building Reading Rooms - STORED OFFSITE QL628.C2; M68 2002http://www.loc.gov/catdir/bios/ucal052/2001027680.htmlhttp://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/ucal042/2001027680.htmlhttp://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/fy031/2001027680.htmlhttp://www.e-streams.com/es0511/es0511_21
90.html}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_34" \\o "Moyle, 2002 #150" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00330034000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 34}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
. Most of the population is restricted to the portion of the Sacramento River downstream of Keswick Reservoir, which is a regulating rese
rvoir for Shasta Reservoir. These reservoirs prevent access to most of the historical habitat of the species. Providing appropriate temperatures to maintain the species while maintaining water deliveries for human purposes is a major goal of water manag
ement of}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid14811138 Shasta Reservoir. Winter-run C}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
hinook salmon begin spawning in the spring. Developing embryos and pre-emergent fry are expected to be in the gravel from May}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1203810\charrsid131865 through October. T}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 he effects of climate change on winter-run Chinook salmon }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1203810\charrsid131865 were assessed }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 by comparing projected mean monthly water temperatures from a model developed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1507830\charrsid131865 (see \u8220\'d2
Hydrology and Management\u8221\'d3 above)}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 for the period May-October against a threshold of 16\u176\'a1C, which would result in high mortality of eggs and
pre-emergent fry. This is likely a conservative comparison since in a month with a mean of 16\u176\'a1
C approximately half the days would have higher temperatures. Comparisons were made for the Sacramento River at Balls Ferry, which is at the lower end of the spawning reach.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865
Historical temperature data were obtained for 1991-1999 from }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15283904 CDEC,}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865 }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid15283904 processed to remove unreasonable values, and }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid5379960\charrsid131865
used to produce the corresponding observation-based historical indicator. Stream temperature data from the historical run of the stream temperature model (1970-1994\emdash see \u8220\'d2Hydrology and Management\u8221\'d3
above) were used to produce the model-based historical indicator.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
\par Sacramento splittail (}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \i\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid16394143 Pogonichthys macrolepidotus}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
) is a large cyprinid, endemic to the San Francisco estuary and watershed }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE }{\field{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
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\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj }{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_34" \\o "Moyle, 2002 #150" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
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\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ,}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_39" \\o "Moyle, 2004 #195" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
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\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
. Splittail are true floodplain spawners and production of strong year classes of young splittail is as
sociated with flooding of Sutter and Yolo bypasses. The bypasses are floodways designed to protect Sacramento and other urban areas from flooding. Yolo bypass has been extensively studied and is now known to provide benefits to native fishes, including
Chino}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid4225910\charrsid131865 ok salmon and splittail }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE }{\field{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
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6f6d70617469626c652077697468206669736865726965732c207765746c616e64732c2077696c646c6966652c20616e64206167726963756c747572653c2f7469746c653e3c7365636f6e646172792d7469746c653e4669736865726965733c2f7365636f6e646172792d7469746c653e3c2f7469746c65733e3c70657269
6f646963616c3e3c66756c6c2d7469746c653e4669736865726965733c2f66756c6c2d7469746c653e3c2f706572696f646963616c3e3c70616765733e362d31363c2f70616765733e3c766f6c756d653e32363c2f766f6c756d653e3c6e756d6265723e383c2f6e756d6265723e3c64617465733e3c796561723e32303031
3c2f796561723e3c2f64617465733e3c75726c733e3c72656c617465642d75726c733e3c75726c3e687474703a2f2f6166736a6f75726e616c732e6f72672f646f692f6162732f31302e313537372f313534382d383434362532383230303125323930323625334330303036253341435942253345322e302e434f25334232
3c2f75726c3e3c2f72656c617465642d75726c733e3c2f75726c733e3c656c656374726f6e69632d7265736f757263652d6e756d3e646f693a31302e313537372f313534382d38343436283230303129303236266c743b303030363a4359422667743b322e302e434f3b323c2f656c656374726f6e69632d7265736f757263
652d6e756d3e3c2f7265636f72643e3c2f436974653e3c2f456e644e6f74653e}}}{\fldrslt }}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj }{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_40" \\o "Feyrer, 2006 #185" }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00340030000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 40}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ,}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_41" \\o "Sommer, 2001 #155" }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00340031000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 41}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
. Floodplains must stay continuously flooded for a minimum of about 30 days }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243
ADDIN EN.CITE Sommer1997201[42]20120117Sommer, TedBaxter, RandallHerbold, BruceResilience of Splittail in the Sacramento\endash
San Joaquin
EstuaryTransactions of the American Fisheries SocietyTransactions of the American Fisheries Society961-97612661997http://afsjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1577/1548-8659%281997%29126%3C0961%3AROSITS%3E2.3.CO%3B2doi:10.1577/1548-8659(1997)126<0961:ROSITS>2
.3.CO;2}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_42" \\o "Sommer, 1997 #201" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00340032000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 42}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
for splittail to successfully spawn. Longer periods of inundation result in greater production of young splittail }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE Moyle2004195[39]19519517Moyle, P.B.Baxter, R.D.Sommer, T.Foin, T.C.Matern, S.A.Biology and population dynamics
of Sacramento splittail (Pogonichthys macrolepidotus) in the San Francisco Estuary: a review.San Francisco Estuary and Watershed ScienceSan Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science
<
/full-title>Article 3.222004May 2004http://repositories.cdlib.org/jmie/sfews/vol2/iss2/art3}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_39" \\o "Moyle, 2004 #195" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00330039000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 39}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 . Yolo Bypass provides appropriate spawning conditions at flows above a}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid6450328\charrsid131865 bout 4,000 cfs. T}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 he frequency of maximum continuous floods wi}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid6450328\charrsid131865 th durations of 30 days (flows continuously above 4,000 cfs) or more was counted.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
\par
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \li0\ri0\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5718491 {\rtlch\fcs1 \ab\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 Analysis
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \fi288\li0\ri0\sa200\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid16148344 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
The trend slope for each time series}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid2586334\charrsid131865 (portrayed in }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid6651692 Fig.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\insrsid2586334\charrsid131865 2)}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 was calculated using the approach of Theil }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243
ADDIN EN.CITE Theil1950169[43]16916917Theil, H.<
/
author>A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis.I. Nederlands Akad. Wetensch. Proc.I. Nederlands Akad. Wetensch
. Proc.386-392531950}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_43" \\o "Theil, 1950 #169" }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00340033000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 43}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 and Sen }
{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE Sen1968164[44]16416417Pranab Kumar SenEstimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall's TauJournal of the American Statistical AssociationJournal of the American Statistical Association1379-13896332419680162-1459http://www.js
t
or.org/stable/2285891http://RL3MQ7XR4S.search.serialssolutions.com?sid=CentralSearch:null&genre=article&atitle=Estimates+of+the+Regression+Coefficient+Based+on+Kendall%27s+Tau&volume=63&issue=324&title=Journal+of+the+America
n+Statistical+Association&issn=0162-1459&date=1968-12-01&spage=1379&aulast=Sen&aufirst=Pranab}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_44" \\o "Sen, 1968 #164" }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00340034000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 44}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
. This Theil-Sen slope is simply the median slope of the lines joining all pairs of data points in the series. }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9139557\charrsid131865
Note that Theil-Sen slopes sometimes differ substantially from linear trend estimates, just as the median and mean of a number set sometimes differ substantially. }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid866761\charrsid131865 The Mann-Kendall
test }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243
ADDIN EN.CITE Mann1945220[30,45]22022017Mann, H.Nonparametric tests against trend.Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric SocietyEconometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society245-259.131945Kendall
1
9752172172176Kendall, M.G.Rank Correlation Methods1975Oxford Univ. Press, New York}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_30" \\o "Kendall, 1975 #217" }{
\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00330030000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 30}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ,}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_45" \\o "Mann, 1945 #220" }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00340035000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 45}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
is often used as a nonparametric test for the statistical significance of these slopes. But hydrological and other time series frequently display serial correlation. Serial correlation increases
the probability of detecting a significant trend and leads to a disproportionate rejection of the null hypothesis of no trend. Trend significance was therefore determined using the modified Mann-Kendall approach of Yue and Pilon }
{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE <
Cite>Yue2002148[46]14814817Yue, ShengPilon, PaulPhinney, BobCavadias, GeorgeThe influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect t
r
end in hydrological seriesHydrological ProcessesHydrological Processes1807-182916920020885-6087
1099-108510.1002/hyp.1095}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_46" \\o "Yue, 2002 #148" }{\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield 18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00340036000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024
\ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 46}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
, which corrects for serial correlation more effectively than older pre-whitening methods. }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9139557\charrsid131865 The confidence interval on the trend is calculated using the method described by Sen }
{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243 ADDIN EN.CITE Sen1968164[44]16416417Pranab Kumar SenEstimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall's TauJournal of the American Statistical AssociationJournal of the American Statistical Association1379-13896332419680162-1459http://www.jstor.org/stable/2285891http://RL3MQ7XR4S.search.serialssolutions.com?sid=C
e
ntralSearch:null&genre=article&atitle=Estimates+of+the+Regression+Coefficient+Based+on+Kendall%27s+Tau&volume=63&issue=324&title=Journal+of+the+American+Statistical+Association&issn=0162-1459&date=1968-12-01&spage=1379&
aulast=Sen&aufirst=Pranab}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_44" \\o "Sen, 1968 #164" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 {\*\datafield
18d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000080000000a0000005f0045004e005200450046005f00340034000000}}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 44}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid9139557\charrsid131865 . }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
Autocorrelation was indeed quite large fo}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid4213752\charrsid131865 r some annual series, up to 0.65}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865
for the sea level A2 scenario. Calculations were carried out using the zyp package }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243
ADDIN EN.CITE Bronaugh2009210[47]21021017Bronaugh, D.Werner, A.[for the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium] zyp
:
Zhang + Yue-Pilon trends package. R package version 0.9-1.R package version 0.9-1.2009http://www.r-
project.org}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
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\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}}}\sectd \ltrsect
\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 for R }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid11209243
ADDIN EN.CITE R Development Core Team2010221[48
]2212216R Development Core Team,
R: A language and environment for statistical computing.R Foundation for Statistical computing2010Vienna, Austria3-900051-07-0http://www.R-project.org}}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 [}
{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 HYPERLINK \\l "_ENREF_48" \\o "R Development Core Team, 2010 #221" }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0
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\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679 48}}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid11209243 ]}
}}\sectd \ltrsect\linex0\footery1440\endnhere\sectlinegrid360\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5718491\sftnbj {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid10569127\charrsid131865 .}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15478690
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\qj \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid6699355 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\cf6\insrsid4202331\charrsid4618679
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\ql \li0\ri0\sa200\sl360\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid1277616 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid16148344\charrsid131865
\par }\pard \ltrpar\s45\qc \li0\ri0\sl276\slmult1\nowidctlpar\wrapdefault\hyphpar0\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid2828679 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid1277616 \page }{\field\fldedit{\*\fldinst {\rtlch\fcs1
\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\insrsid15478690\charrsid131865 ADDIN EN.REFLIST }}{\fldrslt {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24\alang1024 \ltrch\fcs0 \b\f0\fs24\lang1024\langfe1024\noproof\insrsid2828679\charrsid2828679 References
\par
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