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The Heterogeneous Dynamics of Economic Complexity

Fig 4

Back testing of the 5-years Selective Predictability Scheme.

a), we train the EDs on the time interval 1995–2005. We test the rate of success of the forecast of the position of a country in 2010, according to the ED associated to the departure box of the country in 2005. We compute how many times we are able to guess correctly the box in which the country will be after 5 years. Although the very limited statistics of this back testing procedure, the results confirm the fact that, not only the forecasted area in which we expect to find the country is smaller in the laminar regime, as demonstrated by Fig. 3, but even the dynamics appears to be more predictable because of a general higher rate of success of the selective predictability scheme in the laminar region. b), we report the histogram for the relative error of the forecast of 2010’s GDP per capita. Differently from the fitness histogram (not reported), the distribution is not peaked around 0. We believe this systematic under evaluation of growth is due to a training set shorter than the typical length of an economic cycle.

Fig 4