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The Heterogeneous Dynamics of Economic Complexity

Fig 3

The selective predictability scheme.

The scheme is based on the method of analogues [26, 27] which is a strategy to predict the future from the knowledge of the past. We track the evolution of the countries in a given box and we record where these countries have evolved in the following 10 years. By carrying out systematically this procedure for each box, we build the empirical distribution of the 10-years evolution of countries. We report the empirical 10-years distributions (ED) for two boxes: the former from the chaotic-like regime and the latter from the laminar-like one, as defined in Fig. 2. A visual inspection reveals that the EDs from the chaotic-like regime tend to have a larger dispersion than the ones from the laminar one, which are instead very concentrated in few boxes. To quantify this effect we introduce a measure of concentration for the EDs: , where and N(i) are respectively the number of occupied boxes by the ED associated to the box i and the number of points giving rise to ED. This measure, see S1 Information for further considerations, confirms the existence of two regimes characterized by two very different levels of predictability: a laminar regime (green boxes) for which the flow is regular and tends to be concentrated in few boxes and a chaotic regime characterized by very dispersed distributions of the country evolution. We argue that in the first regime the fitness is the key ingredient to develop a forecasting scheme for the evolution of the economic systems.

Fig 3