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The Heterogeneous Dynamics of Economic Complexity

Fig 2

The four regimes of the heterogeneous dynamics of economic complexity.

a) A finer coarse graining of the dynamics highlights two regimes for the dynamics of the evolution of countries in the fitness-income plane. There exists a laminar region in which fitness is the driving force of the growth and the only relevant economic variable in order to characterize the dynamics of countries. We argue that the evolution of countries in this region is highly predictable. There is also a second regime, which appears to be chaotic and characterized by a low level of predictability. In the laminar regime we also find two different kinds of evolution patterns for the emergent countries and developed ones respectively. In this heterogenous scenario for the economic dynamics of countries, regressions are no more the appropriate tool to develop a predictive scheme, which instead must face issues which are very close to the problems of predictability for dynamical systems (i.e. atmosphere, climate, wind, ocean dynamics, and weather forecast, etc). b) we report a continuous interpolation of the coarse grained dynamics to better illustrate the two regimes of predictability,

Fig 2