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Unforeseen Effects of Supplementary Feeding: Ungulate Baiting Sites as Hotspots for Ground-Nest Predation

Figure 4

Predicted probability of nest predation in relation to the distance to ungulate feeding sites and time of nest exposure.

Estimates of the probability of nest predation with 95% confidence intervals (dashed lines) generated from the logistic model without random effects (Table 1, GLMM fitted to the field data using a logit link function and a binomial error distribution) as a function of the distance to the closest ungulate feeding site and the time elapsed since nest deployment. The effect of the time of nest exposure on nest predation probability is shown for two periods: A) 7 days and B) 21 days. Nest predation risk increased at shorter distances from ungulate feeding sites and with the number of days elapsed since nest deployment. Considering a typical incubation period of three weeks (B), model predictions indicate that the area within 1-km distance from ungulate supplementary feeding sites would have a high probability of nest predation (>0.05). Field data from the experiment is provided as a rug (small ticks inside the box) in the x-axis. Note the logarithmic scale in the x-axis.

Figure 4