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Resilience of Natural Gas Networks during Conflicts, Crises and Disruptions

Figure 5

Network throughput of selected countries in a hypothetical crisis with Russia.

The right axis shows the country throughput relative to the present baseline scenario. To minimize the impact of the loss of Russian supply, we re-allocate paths that originate in Russia to Norway and the Netherlands (see Methods). We then partition countries into two groups: group I is composed of Eastern Europe ( ) together with Estonia, Finland, Greece, Latvia and Lithuania, and group II includes all other countries in our study. Group II countries have a demand of , where . Panels (A)–(C) show the throughput for selected group I countries (open squares), whereas panels (D)–(F) illustrate the throughput for group II countries (open circles). Panels (A)–(C) demonstrate that countries in group I benefit from curtailing the demand of countries in group II. In contrast, panels (D)–(E) show that some countries in group II are largely unaffected even when their own demand is curtailed considerably. Finally, panel (F) demonstrates that supply to Austria is dominated by the demand reduction prefactor, . Indeed, Austria is crossed by routes from Norway and the Netherlands to group I countries, and these routes get a higher allocation of available capacity as Austrian demand decreases ( i.e., as decreases).

Figure 5