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Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

Figure 5

An illustration of how individual datasets deviate from the pooled data.

The data-specific contribution to the slope, , is plotted against the data specific contribution to the intercept, , and compared to the ellipse of two standard deviation errors. The best forecasts are obtained for those found in the lower left quadrant, such as Beer, Sodium, RefinedCaneSugar, and Aluminum.

Figure 5