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Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

Figure 1

An illustration of the growth of errors with time using the Wright model.

The mean value of the logarithmic hindcasting error for each dataset is plotted against the hindcasting horizon , in years. An error of , for example, indicates that the predicted value is three times as big as the actual value. The longest data-sets are: PrimaryAluminum (green), PrimaryMagnesium (dark blue), DRAM (grey), and Transistor (red).

Figure 1