Climatic Associations of British Species Distributions Show Good Transferability in Time but Low Predictive Accuracy for Range Change
The accuracy of forecasts generated by each modelling framework was measured by mean AUC and reported for each major taxonomic group. Error bars represent ±1 standard error of the mean. The dashed line indicates the rule-of-thumb for good predictions (AUC = 0.8). Abbreviations: ANN = artificial neural networks, CTA = classification tree analysis, GAM = generalised additive models, GBM = generalised boosted models, GLM = generalised linear models, MARS = Multivariate adaptive regression splines, MaxEnt = maximum entropy models, Mn(PA) = prediction mean from all presence-absence modelling frameworks, RF = random forests, SRE = surface range envelopes.