“Hot Hand” on Strike: Bowling Data Indicates Correlation to Recent Past Results, Not Causality
Box plot of the mean probability of success of each player for the different frames in a bowling game. The increase in the mean (black solid line) success rate of all players between frame 1 and frame 3 is evident. A paired Mann-Whitney test (two sided) between frame 1 and frame 5 yields a very low P value of ( between frame 1 and 3). The dashed line spans the mean success rate of all of the players while the blue rectangle spans the middle 50% quantiles.