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Pleistocene Climate, Phylogeny, and Climate Envelope Models: An Integrative Approach to Better Understand Species' Response to Climate Change

Figure 2

Illustration of a paleophylogeographic model.

A, Modern geographic distribution for Crotalus adamanteus. B, Climate envelope for three bioclimatic variables. The red points represent the climate associated today with each red 50 km point from the modern geographic distribution in A. The green cube represents the climate envelope, the 5th and 95th percentile of each of the three bioclimatic variables. C, Suitable habitat modeled from the climate envelope on the modern climate. The green 50 km points on the map all fall within the green climate space in B and are considered suitable habitat for C. adamanteus today. D, Phylogeny and ancestral reconstructions. Annual Precipitation (mm) is regressed on the phylogeny. The first three steps of the reconstruction are shown at 4.7 kya, 9.4 kya and 14.1 kya. E, Temperature estimates for the North American continent derived from a composite oxygen isotope curve. The paleoclimate reconstruction for each step is scaled based on this curve. F, Phylogenetically scaled climate envelope projected onto isotopically scaled paleoclimate model at 14.1 kya. These 50 km points are considered suitable habitat for C. adamanteus 14.1 kya.

Figure 2