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Parallel Routes of Human Carcinoma Development: Implications of the Age-Specific Incidence Data

Figure 2

This graph quantitatively shows the agreement between the SEER-9 data and the hypotheses (Equations 3 and 4).

The top panel displays the agreement, as measured by a p-value, between lung and colon carcinoma and Equation 3, and between breast carcinoma and Equation 4. In all cases the p-value, representing the probability that one should accept the hypothesis, is greater than 0.001, and in most cases it exceeds 0.01. In contrast, the corresponding graph for prostate carcinoma and Equation 3 shows that the p-value always exceeded 0.01, until 1991 when it plunged below that level. Prostate carcinoma, post 1991, clearly cannot be explained by Equation 3, but it is in agreement with Equation 4. The 1991 change corresponds to the widespread implementation of screening for prostate carcinoma using the PSA test.

Figure 2